Three or four surfers trying to beat the wave ,  with a pretty respectable attempt :)

 

A killer outside set, beautiful set…


The winds will be turning North by late morning, so winds will be offshore North of Minuteman Cswy.  Should be Chest high to some overhead sets with West NW to NNW.

Have a Great Surf Day and thank God for Safe Hurricanes!


We were all hoping to see a trace of swell at the beaches tonight before dark.  Oh Well ! :<(

It did hit the 120 mile buoy out from the Cape at 4 PM.   Just a trace.  The swell out there as been 1.4 to 2 feet at 7-8 seconds.  At 3:50 PM, it finally hit 2.3 feet at 13 seconds, and then a couple 8 second readings.  Anticpation………………………..Below are 3 charts.   The first is the Swell at 6 am Wednesday morning, the second is the power of the swell period at 6 am and the third is from today at 3 PM the Swell Period.  Notice how the period hit the beaches way before the waves did.  Very strange.  Low end, 2 foot over head waves.  High end for Wednesday, 5 foot overhead (down South and maybe, just maybe the Pier :)  My calls are below.

Swell-Chart-Magicseaweed.com-6-AM-Wednesday-09-17-14

Swell Chart for the Surf size at 6 AM Wednesday morning, compliments of Magicseaweed.com

Wednesday at 9 AM,  (daybreak should still be chest high or bigger), but by 9 AM, before the scattered thunderstorms are supposed to start around 10 AM,  I believe there will be some size.   At the Cape, The Pier,  head high to 2 foot overhead, with rogue bigger sets.  Satellite Beach may show some 1-3 foot overhead sets.  By 1 or 2 PM,  it could jack up to a consistent 2-4 foot overhead for the big sets.  Deep down, I think a 4 or 5 foot overhead rogue wave will not be uncommon at the Rock Reef breaks in Satellite Beach.  The winds could blow as hard as 10-16 mph WSW.  Those winds should slow down a little thru the day.

 

Period-of-Swell-Chart-Magicseaweed.com-6-AM-Wednesday-09-17-14

Period (strength of swell) Chart for the Surf at 6 AM Wednesday morning, compliments of Magicseaweed.com

Thursdayit should be solid shoulder high to overhead in the morning, with the size dropping thru the day.  Offshore winds in the morning, and the winds should be NW turning NNW to North, so Satellite does crank with NW winds, but it you get out late, stay North of Minuteman Causeway, to catch the North wind breaks.

 

 

 

Period-of-Swell-Chart-Magicseaweed.com-3-PM-Tuesday-09-16-14

Period (strength) of the Swell Chart for the Surf at 3 PM today, Tuesday compliments of Magicseaweed.com

Have fun, be safe, and watch for the Thunderstorms coming from the central part of the state.  Those could kick in as early as 9 or 10 am, and should keep coming all day.

Oldwaverider


What does 4.5 feet at 16 seconds really mean?  And the swell peaks around 9-12 Wednesday at 5 feet at 15 seconds.  Well…see below my Wednesday, Thursday call to see why it could hit close to double overhead for a few hours late morning in Satellite Beach  till maybe, 1 pm Wednesday.  Leslie in 2012 a month before Sandy was 4.3 feet at 13 seconds and delivered some 11 foot faces at RC’s.

A Hurricane Sandy wave, medium wave, Oct 28 2012, photo by Mike MelitoWednesday morning, I am calling 2-3 feet overhead at the Pier, with freak sets that are bigger.  By noon, I suspect Satellite will have 3 -4 foot overhead big sets, and bigger rogue sets.  Winds should be 10 to 15 mph West.

Thursday, shoulder high to 1 foot overhead at the Pier and Satellite, with bigger sets.  NW winds until 11ish, then sideshore winds.

Friday, barely leftovers with a new swell coming in for Saturday and Sunday in the thigh to waist high range.  Waves for 5 days, yeah!

You have to consider a few things.  A swell that comes from Africa, has a chance to develop a great deal of power even when the swell size is smaller than say a Sandy which traveled from the Caribbean.  Sandy hit 18-20 feet at 17-19 seconds, but the swell could not travel far and reach the deep ocean depth that a storm from Africa can.  Sandy was freak huge due to the power of the hurricane, yeah.  And, Sandy did not closeout, hardly at all.  Eduard, the fetch of the swell (the width, and height, is much much taller than the U.S. from Florida to Canada.  Look at the Period chart.  It is so big, and so perfectly uniform like the Nov 10 2011 swell.  That swell was 6 feet at 11 seconds, but 5 feet at 15 seconds is a lot of power.  We’ll see.  I’m rambling kinda :)

Anyhow, Eduard could be 3 to 6 feet overhead when it hits the better spots.  It will be 1000 miles form our coast, maybe a little less, but it has generated some power.  A 15 second period has a wave traveling at you at 45 mph.  An 11 second swell, travels at you in the lineup at 33 mph.  50% difference.


Basically the Same outlook as my post on Saturday.  Wednesday morning is the big offshore day with West winds most of the day.  Size, 5 feet at 15-16 seconds will produce 3 to 5 foot overhead waves.

Thursday , as it stands, is looking over overhead with NW winds early, so get a real early start Thursday.

Hurricane Edouard is expected to hit a Category 2 Hurricane on Tuesday.

Hurricane-Category-Chart


When does Edouard provide the first great Surf Day?  Today marks the 3rd day that Wednesday will be big and offshore winds in the morning.  What does big mean.  The models for Hurricane Edouard show 5 feet at 15 seconds between 6 & 9 AM Wednesday morning.  Note: Hurricane Leslie, was a 4.5 feet at 13 second period swell.  Quite a bit less powerful than Edouard so far.  See the rest of Forecast below Surf photo.  At the bottom of this post is the path of Hurricane Edouard, an image from Channel 13 news Hurricane Tracking.

Below is a photo my friend Mike Melito took of Hurricane Leslie :

Hurricane Leslie at RC's, September 8th, 2012, photo by Mike Melito.  Swell size: 4.5 feet at 13 seconds.

So what does the Forecast for Wednesday thru Saturday look like for Hurricane Edouard?

Wednesday is the peak of the swell, with 5 feet at 15 seconds most of the day.  Size 5-7 foot swell, produces 2 to 5 foot overhead waves.  West winds at 8 to 12 mph, and turns onshore by early afternoon.

Thursday swell size, 4-6 feet early, and 3-5 feet by 10 AM.  Should be overhead to 2 foot overhead plus in Satellite Beach, with offshore winds , but only for a few ours in the morning.

Friday swell size, 2-4 foot, so it should be waist to chest high and even bigger sets.  It may be offshore, but it’s still too far to confirm what direction.

Hurricane-Edouard-Ch13-printscreen-09-13-14-532PM


Eduard should be in Tuesday night, and for two days running Thursday looks overhead and offshore.  And now Wednesday looks to be offshore and way overhead, with a Friday chest to head high glassy day of leftovers.  But we will see…  :)


Wednesday night 9:30 PM update!  THE BUOYS ARE BIGGER AND MORE POWERFUL THAN THEY WERE IN THE LAST 36 HOURS!  120 Mile Buoy hit 9.5 feet at 11 seconds (strongest period yet for this swell),  and the 20 mile buoy hit 6.6 feet at 11 seconds, also bigger and stronger than anything today or yesterday, and the reading I just listed was for 8:50 PM Wednesday night!

Today, was almost Epic! Plenty of 100 yard rides to be had, with lots of power.  And yes, there were plenty of entertaining close-outs, but you could let many of them pass by with good judgement :)  The almost perfect form, size and power, did not really kick in until around 10:00 AM.   After 10, size climbed a foot on the face size, and the power increased significantly!

The Video below, is a good example of the form we had today, though the size was perhaps, a foot bigger today for Hurricane Cristobal. (The Video is actually from a November 23, 2012 shoot that I did in Satellite Beach)  I just wanted to share how nice the form looked and worked today.

Thursday morning, we should expect the same size as today, if not 6 inches bigger, and I believe the power will be 20% more punch on Thursday.  Why?  The period of the swell increases overnight.  The winds are expected to be 3 to 5 mph onshore E to NE, but again, we could have an hour or so of offshore winds.  Either way, it should be pretty good form and long rides Thursday!

Friday, size drops to waist high with light onshore winds, which will give the NKF Rich Salick Pro/Am Surf Festival/contest something to make it worthwhile to have a contest.


Thursday is still looking like the Crystal Ball could be an Epic reading for us…  But then, watch out for Wednesday!  I am re-posting our Hurricane Bertha surf video here:

Video by: http://www.walkonwaterproductions.biz

Wednesday should be slight offshore for the Cape and head high to overhead between the Cape, and some North CCB breaks.   Winds should be North in the 6 to 8 mph range at daybreak till around 10 AM.  That is slight offshore for the Cape.  And with the old land, cooling down faster than Sea scientific fact, it could blow NNW Wednesday morning for an hour.

Thursday, still looks to be chest to overhead, with winds from the models showing offshore till maybe 10 AM, but Weather.com shows 3-4 mph onshore at daybreak.  We’ll wee.

Benji Brand in a 1 Kilometer long barrell ride

Friday with leftovers for the contest, waist to stomach high maybe offshore, we’ll see.


Will we see Tropical Storm Cristobal Monday morning?  Yep!

It hit the 120 mile buoy at 12 Noon today, around 3 feet at 10 seconds, and just hit 4.6 feet at 11 seconds at 6:50 PM reading.  At 8 am this morning, the swell that was out there was 2.3 feet at 6 or 7 seconds.

Monday morning, it should be around waist high, because the winds will be onshore, but maybe under 10 mph up until 8 am, then pickup up to 10 to 15 mph my guess by noon.  It most likely will be raining with thunder storms around in the morning too. By Monday at 6 PM, it should be solid head high down south, maybe overhead, and chest to shoulder high at the Pier.  Tuesday, size should jack up another foot on the fact, with head high onshore chop at the pier with bigger sets, and head high to a foot or two overhead down south.

Wednesday morning should be shoulder to head high with 8 to 12 mph onshore winds, with the winds possibly backing off a little all day.  So , if you can get out, wait till 9:30 or 10 (high tide at 9:30), and catch it to mid tide high going low, with the winds slowing down a bit.  Swell size starts to drop after 3 or 4 pm, as the models show right now.  Wednesday should be a lot of fun.

Thursday, size drops off quite a bit, but still may have some chest high waves with even lighter onshore winds, like 4 to 8 mph, so it should be lots of fun Thursday.   Friday should have some fun leftovers for the Surf contest, in the waist high plus range, light onshores, maybe offshore early.  Saturday, will most likely be longboard only with offshore winds.

We’ll post more accurate winds Monday night to see what to expect for Wednesday.  All these forecasts could change if the storm weakens, picks up speed.  (disclaimer done :)

Want something to do next weekend?  Here ya go,  the NKF Labor Day Surf Festival, and here is a screenshot of the website, check out all the events! Follow the link to check it out at their website here:

 

29th Annual NKF (National Kidney Foundation) Rich Salick Pro/Am Surf Festival at Cocoa Beach Pier and other locations