When can we expect Waves from Tropical Storm Erika?

Friday, we could have some waist high and glassy waves at daybreak, which would be the first touch of Erika, perhaps combined with the other departing SE swell.  The winds are looking offshore, at daybreak for Friday.  See Saturday and Sunday surf report below images. And, See image below for T.S. Erika daily status:

Tropical-Storm-Erika-08-26-15-11am-EDT-Wunderground

 

See Wunderground.com forecast here for Erika report: Wunderground.com website for TS Erika report

Saturday morning surf should be 3-5 feet swell size, meaning 4-7 foot faces, but starts out smaller in the morning and builds to this size during the latter part of the afternoon.  Winds, expect  8-12 mph SSE winds at daybreak, changing more East after mid-morning.  If you like to surf Playalinda, Sebastian Inlet or Spanish House,  at daybreak the winds , if they are SSE, can be offshore at Playalinda and Sebastian Inlet.  Why?  Because direct South winds are 32 degrees offshore at Playalinda, whereas at say Officers Club, direct South winds are only 6 degrees offshore, and 10 degrees offshore at say RC’s.  South for some of you, it’s worth the drive.

Sunday swell size is probably the same, maybe a foot bigger on the face on the bigger sets.  12-16 mph East onshore winds, so driving to South wind breaks will be pointless.

 


The Tuesday incoming groundswell for 2 feet at 12 seconds,  is still on track according to the models; however it appears to be delayed by 6 or 8 hours.  It has not hit the 120 mile buoy as of 10 AM EST today Monday 08/24.

A 12 second period swell travels between 15-20 mph, so when it does hit, providing there are no strong westerly winds out there (and there shouldn’t be), it should take about 7-9 hours to hit the beaches.  It is a Southeast swell,  so Satellite Beach should get a great angle on the swell in addition to Cocoa Beach.

Size should be waist to rib, with maybe a few chest high sets at the reef breaks down south, with wind models for Tuesday right now at weather.com showing 4-6 mph SSW at daybreak turning SW and back to SSW to onshore by around Noon.  NOTE:  I don’t believe their models have updated for wind since yesterday, which I don’t know why.  It they do change significant for tomorrow, as MSW.com is showing brisk offshore, then I will update this post.

Check out Sobe Surf for all your SUP training and supplies !Sobe Surf website


What kind of swell do we have coming Tuesday through possibly Thursday this week?

Incoming Hurricane Maria swell from 2011 at Johnson Avenue, by OldwaveriderTuesday, for the 2nd or 3rd day running, the models show 1.8 to 2 feet at 12 second period swell, which starts at about 2-3 foot waves, or 3 to 4 foot faces.  It should be glassy for a couple hours Tuesday morning at daybreak till maybe 8 or so.

Wednesday through Thursday, maybe Friday show more of the same :)

And the swell could even look like the photo below:

camera with surfing 519


Check out the video below of the incredible 10-20 foot stand up barrells in Puerto Escondido with Natxo Gonzalez, a 19 year old that caught the biggest barrells of his life :)

Thursday morning surf should be waist high and glassy in Satellite Beach with SW winds at daybreak turning SSW by 2 or 3 am and SW at daybreak, maybe until 10 or 11 am.  Then by noon it turns back SE.  The Cape may be rideable, but the Pier should be with thigh high to waist high sets.

Friday mornng should also be glass, maybe a little smaller.


Hey, we have maybe a fun thigh to waist high swell coming Thursday and Friday with maybe ,  I’ll share more on tuesday.

Happy Fathers Day!

 

 


Saturday morning, should be chest to shoulder w some head high sets, in Satellite. Cocoa Beach and the Pier, a foot or so smaller.  Maybe some overhead faces down south :)  Winds, 6 mph east at daybreak, and 7-9 by 9 or 10 am, less than 15 in the afternoon.  If no morning sickness, THE LENGTH OF THIS SWELL, THE “FETCH” IF U WILL, IS WAY LONGER THAN THE United States and Canada in height.  If may not be a full ground swell, but expect some nice lines.

Sunday morning, lighter winds, maybe 4 mph onshore. 6 inches or so bigger, and better shape.

Monday morning, I would say, offshore winds until maybe 8:30 AM, then South to SE.


More later, but I just wanted to let y’all know that Thursday could be bigger and glassier, or at least better form, but Wednesday right now it is offshore down south, NW at 4 mph, as of 12:07 PM Wednesday 05/06/2015


Sunday morning, down south , expect big waves :)  Very steep angle swell, so the Cape and even the Pier, may only be half the size of Satellite Beach, due to being blocked out.  What’s my prediction?  Well, if it was offshore winds, then I would say, we could see some close to double overhead faces in Satellite.  But, since it should be 6-8 mph ne winds at daybreak,  I believe we will see some 1-3 foot overhead faces, with a few 4 foot overhead faces by 9 am.  It looks like a ground swell, as it hit the 120 mile buoy at 7 pm tonight, 6 feet at 11 seconds.  High tide is 8 am , so try to hit dawn patrol!

Have fun, and be safe !

Oldwaverider :)


Indian River by Air shared this photo with WFLX FOX 29 the day before April 3rd,  Sharks and more sharks :)

Sharks-south-of-Sebastian-Inlet-WFLX-Fox29-04-03-15 - shared by Indian River by Air


Do we need to blow off work Thursday?  No :) It is just a wind swell, not a groundswell.  But the last 3.5 foot at 8 second windswell I caught by 2nd light 2 1/2 weeks ago was 60-100 yard glassy rides with workable walls (Longboard, yes) in the thigh to rib high size.  So hopefully we’ll get lucky.  Thursday morning should be thigh to waist high glass at the Pier, and maybe some rib high sets in Satellite Beach.  Winds look like they will have a couple hours of SW winds in the 5-8mph range mid-morning.  Then turning South to SE by 11 or noon.  Wednesday night I’ll have a more accurate wind report !

Friday morning should have some smaller leftovers with similar conditions as Thursday.

Check out this awesome video below.  I haven’t ever seen Outer Reef in Hawaii this big.  Waimea, yeah, Jaws, well of course, but Outer Reef?

Keala Kennelly at Outer Reef – 2015 Billabong Ride of the Year Entry – XXL Big Wave Awards