Archive for August, 2016


Forgive the late post ūüôā

As you notice, the long period swell turned into little peaky sections, ignoring the bad weather and erratic winds. ¬†The 2 TS’s I believe created an mini adverse swell that literally held back Hurricane Gaston. ¬†Well, after it went sunny today for a while, the long period swell 13-14 second period, along with a 1 to 1 and a 1 /2 foot swell size increase.

Right now winds are 10 mph South, at Patrick/2nd Lite area. That was 10:10 PM tonight.

For Wednesday, Winds may pick up for a while tonight (after midnight which brings us into Wednesday) , and then hopefully back down to 10-13 mph South winds at daybreak Wednesday morning. ¬†Yeah, it’s around high tide, but , there should ¬†be some fun waves, and by 9:30 or so, with a 2 hour lead into low tide, it could get really fun, with some clean form. ¬†I’m hoping for some solid chest to head high waves by 10 or 11 am, with semi-clean form.

It won’t be this big, nor this glassy, but it does fire me up a bit for a good session Wednesday ūüôā

 

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Well, I wish I had solid friendly wind data.  Okay so both local storms got upgraded to Tropical Depression, we needed rain anyhow.

Tuesday, if you can find a window in the 40 to 80% Scattered to just plain Thunderstorms out there, you will probably find some decent formed waves, even with the 6-8 mph onshore winds in the morning.  Should be some head high waves down South.

Wednesday, after high tide, pushing toward 11 or so, we could see some very clean, and semi-glass waves, perhaps chest to some over head sets. ¬†South winds in the 8-12 mph range is expected, but I think we’ll get a few hours w some SSW to them. ¬†Up North here, that is sideshore, but south of Minuteman, and to Satellite Beach, South winds work better due to the curve in the coast. ¬†And of course Spanish House, South winds are 26 degrees offshore, as opposed to 10 or 12 degrees offshore in Satellite.

Playalinda, direct south winds are 32 degrees offshore, so that will be the place to be.

Here’s the map at Wunderground.com:

The two local storms are causing the unpredictable winds (of course u knew that :), but at least we have Gaston pushing in some 3 foot at 12 second waves or better.  With a little touch from God, if He so chooses, we could have some fun on Wednesday and Thursday.  Maybe some leftovers on Friday for longboards only ?

2-Storms-n-Gaston-08-29-2016-at-837PM-compliments-wunderground


Yep, Tuesday is flip floppin, and may have an epic daybreak session, but keep your eyes for Wednesday.

I’ll update a lot more on Monday, but we do have 3 storms involved again, 91L is the one close to land and in North Florida land, while Gaston will begin it’s turn toward Europe on Wednesday. ¬†Hopefully storm 99L will fizzle out as it passes under or thru the Southern tip of our state.

The 120 buoy is down for now, so we won’t have that 8-10 hour window to let us know the swell is approaching. ¬†The 20 mile buoy no action, nor Ft. Pierce.

The models show 3-5 foot on Tuesday or Wednesday, but don’t let that keep your hopes down on size. ¬†As I shared the other day, Hurricane Leslie was 4 feet at 11 or 12 seconds and put up some spotty 11 foot faces in Satellite. ¬†So some 8 or 9 foot faces can probably be found, if not bigger.

More on Monday ūüôā

 


I will share more later today, or maybe just Saturday.

Tropical Storm Gaston was predicted to weaken some, until Saturday. ¬†So therefore, the models which are formed from real data, had to lessen the swell for Wed & Thursday. ¬†But I believe, that by sometime Saturday, when it becomes a Category 1 again, and approaches it’s Cat 2 prediction, that the charts will be bigger for Wednesday again.

I could be wrong.  But this is what I believe.  Lets just hope Tropical Storm 99L  keeps weakening, so that it does not keep blowing onshore winds, and that it does not redevelop in the Gulf and become a huge storm.


Gaston-Only-Intensity-Model-08-24-16-at-11am-EST-compliments-wunderground.comCould Gaston actually bring us Big Glassy Waves?

I believe so, and here’s why:

First, Fiona is gone, so that takes away more onshore winds from 3 storms back to back. ¬†Then, Storm 99TL, is expected to fizzle out, while Gaston intensifies. ¬†(I added this part around 3:15 PM Wednesday, and that is, that I shouldn’t say, Storm 99TL fizzles out, because it actually will be the reason why the offshore winds that I hope arrive on Wednesday & Thursday, that is why they are so strong and adding winds out of the South to the offshores coming from Gaston. ¬†With Fiona gone, that is why we can at least have some offshore winds. ¬†But if 99TL is 45 mph winds and grazing over the Caribbean, ¬†even though it doesn’t take a Northern climb, that is still enough to send a Southernly breeze up toward our coast. ¬†I sure hope it does fizzle out though, not only for our surf, but also, more important, so people don’t have harm or damage around Cuba, Haiti & the Bahamas)

Storm details say that Gaston turns hurricane on Saturday. ¬†But still not far enough North of us to have offshore winds by then. ¬†However, then an upper wind shear (a low I believe) will weaken Gaston a little, and then by day 5, Monday, ¬†it is expected to intensify up to perhaps 100 mph winds. ¬†That is probably why the Magicseaweed.com models show such good waves for Wednesday thru possibly Friday. ¬†This makes sense, because by Monday sometime, the storm is expected to head North as opposed to it’s current WNW bearing, and once it is a couple hundred miles North of us, wallah, those offshore winds.

Big-Wundermap-Models-99TL-n-Gaston-Storms-for-Saturday-08-27-16-at-6am-prediction-compliments-wunderground.comKeep in mind, that this storm is much further out than our normal hurricanes from Africa. ¬†This one will be about 2000 miles offshore. ¬†So that is why the models show a 3 or 3.5 foot swell at whatever, 13 to 15 seconds. ¬†But remember, Hurricane Leslie of 2012 was 4 feet at 12 seconds and gave us some 11 foot face waves in Satellite Beach ūüôā

It’s still far out, but I think we will get 2 glassy days (Wed & Thurs perhaps next week), maybe the first a late afternoon glass, but nonetheless, 2 days of chest to 1 foot overhead, and glassy, at least down south. ¬†And the typical 20-40% smaller up North but still perhaps awesome.

Oldwaverider


3-Storms-and-Day-of-Affect-taken-on-8-23-2016-at-832-am


Fiona, is she going to bring us any fun waves?

Tropical-Storm-Fiona-Model-08-19-16-347pm-Friday-compliments of Wunderground.comPerhaps, we will feel some of the fetch by evening next Saturday the 27th. ¬†The models show some size overhead on Sunday the 28th, though with onshore winds still. ¬†Below I post the Wunderground Storm details, which if the former of the two predictions hold up as stated below in quotes, we could have some fun waves blown in by a tropical depression, with the winds turning offshore as it reaches 100 miles North of us. ¬†(as is always the case for the winds to turn offshore for a hurricane ūüôā

With a little good fortune, perhaps sometime Monday the 29th we could have some nice waves!

Storm details from Wunderground.com : “A combination of a dry air mass, increasing vertical wind shear, and¬†convergent upper-level flow should cause Fiona to weaken for the¬†next 3-4 days. The intensity forecast follows the guidance¬†consensus in calling for the cyclone to weaken to a depression by 48¬†hours, and then remain at about a 30 kt intensity through the rest¬†of the forecast period. An alternative scenario is that the system¬†weakens more than currently forecast and decays to a remnant low¬†sometime before day 4. As noted in the previous discussion, the¬†environmental conditions might get less hostile by day 5.”


Mike MelitoIs it worth getting up to meet the Morning Sun?

I think so. ¬†The scattered thunderstorms that were going to meet us at daybreak, appear to have post-poned until 10 or 11 am, well, at least in Satellite Beach ūüôā

This looks almost to be a groundswell, and it stretches out a couple thousand miles, (no not of full period strength), but at least covers a couple thousand miles at least ūüôā

Wednesday morning for 1, maybe 2 hours has a great chance of being rib to chest high, with bigger sets, and offshore SW winds in the 3-5 mph range… but maybe, and only until 9 a.m. ¬† High tide at 8:45 am, so that’s another reason to do dawn patrol.

Enjoy it boardmen, boardwomen !

ūüôā

Oldwaverider