Will we have local wind, or secondary swell disturbance?  Or will Tropical Storm Karl bring us the goods without Lisa’s throwing a tantrum?

The map below, compliments of awesome Wunderground.com weather, shows us that Karl about 1500 miles offshore, almost hurricane status, and Lisa, another 1500 miles out from Karl, should not interfere, and may even be slightly strengthening the gift from Karl.

karl-n-lisa-wunderground-com-compliments-927-am-on-09-22-16The swell actually hit the 20 mile buoy last night around 10-11 PM (Wed night), along with the Fernandina Beach buoy and the Ft. Pierce Buoy all around the same time, which is actually rare.

Don’t expect any glass this afternoon, after this morning’s glass, but Friday morning, it could be blowing SW by 4 or 5 am, and turning NW by 10 or so, and onshore probably by noon, and maybe enough to prevent morning sickness and glass by daybreak.  The winds are expected to be in the 4-7 mph range which is awesome.  The tide is finally with us !!!!  Size at daybreak, should be waist to chest high, from the Pier south, and by 9 or 10, we may see some shoulder high waves, at least on the bigger sets.  Minus the wetsuit, surf could look like the video below on Friday.

Saturday, should be chest to head high, with maybe only a few hours mirror glass up North , NNW winds, and semi-glass in south CCB and maybe Satellite.  Still light, so it may not throw much texture down South even though it’s expected to be NNW (which is almost onshore in Satellite Beach).

Sunday could be more of the same as Saturday.  The period drops to 10 seconds from 11 or 12, which could make it better, worse, or the same, who knows ?  :)

 


Update at 8:30 PM Thursday.  The swell finally hit 3.3 feet at 12 seconds at 120 buoy, and winds were NNE to N , unlike the 7 mph west winds that were at the 20 mile up until 1:30, so that may have held the swell back.

NOTE:  For Friday, The winds have switched to a NW to NNW direction for our offshore winds (they were going to be SW to West), so , only expect NW winds (which are still okay for Satellite, but if they go NNW, then 4rth St North is better, but anywhere North of Minuteman Cswy for NNW winds.  So down south may still be best if it’s NW, and up until 9 am.probably)

End 8:30 PM Update

Today, TS Julia who literally formed over our heads the last couple days (rare for 20-30 years) and TS Ian way out in North Atlantic, bring us some nice waist to maybe chest by 10 am or if slow to arrive, by noon in Satellite Beach with glass until maybe 1 pm.  The 20 mile buoy had 11 & 14 second reading back to back at 8-9 am this morning, which means, 2 hours from then or so it hits our beaches.  Thus the 11 or 12 Pm prediction to hit the beaches with power and some nice size🙂

wunderground-com-ts-map-on-09-15-16-932amFriday should be chest to head high with offshore winds till maybe noon.

Saturday should be waist to chest and offshore down south (and maybe up North offshore till 8 or 9am or so if it is truly SW winds).  Offshore down south in Satellite till maybe 9 or 10 am.

Sunday maybe some waist high leftovers with more glass than Saturday.

 


Was the drive down to Spanish House worth it on Wednesday?  Maybe.  The swell was still iffy, but I heard Tuesday it was pretty excellent.

We made a treck down South and ended up at Satellite Beach.  Got a few.  A few in the water is better than a day in the office, right?

🙂

The video below earns it name damn well.  MIND-BLOWING DROP-INS, BARRELS, WIPE-OUTS…  and just plain phenomenal footage of the January 21st & 22nd JAWS swell of this year. (2016)

 

DANG jaws from ACL Digital Cinema on Vimeo.


Forgive the late post🙂

As you notice, the long period swell turned into little peaky sections, ignoring the bad weather and erratic winds.  The 2 TS’s I believe created an mini adverse swell that literally held back Hurricane Gaston.  Well, after it went sunny today for a while, the long period swell 13-14 second period, along with a 1 to 1 and a 1 /2 foot swell size increase.

Right now winds are 10 mph South, at Patrick/2nd Lite area. That was 10:10 PM tonight.

For Wednesday, Winds may pick up for a while tonight (after midnight which brings us into Wednesday) , and then hopefully back down to 10-13 mph South winds at daybreak Wednesday morning.  Yeah, it’s around high tide, but , there should  be some fun waves, and by 9:30 or so, with a 2 hour lead into low tide, it could get really fun, with some clean form.  I’m hoping for some solid chest to head high waves by 10 or 11 am, with semi-clean form.

It won’t be this big, nor this glassy, but it does fire me up a bit for a good session Wednesday🙂

 


Well, I wish I had solid friendly wind data.  Okay so both local storms got upgraded to Tropical Depression, we needed rain anyhow.

Tuesday, if you can find a window in the 40 to 80% Scattered to just plain Thunderstorms out there, you will probably find some decent formed waves, even with the 6-8 mph onshore winds in the morning.  Should be some head high waves down South.

Wednesday, after high tide, pushing toward 11 or so, we could see some very clean, and semi-glass waves, perhaps chest to some over head sets.  South winds in the 8-12 mph range is expected, but I think we’ll get a few hours w some SSW to them.  Up North here, that is sideshore, but south of Minuteman, and to Satellite Beach, South winds work better due to the curve in the coast.  And of course Spanish House, South winds are 26 degrees offshore, as opposed to 10 or 12 degrees offshore in Satellite.

Playalinda, direct south winds are 32 degrees offshore, so that will be the place to be.

Here’s the map at Wunderground.com:

The two local storms are causing the unpredictable winds (of course u knew that🙂, but at least we have Gaston pushing in some 3 foot at 12 second waves or better.  With a little touch from God, if He so chooses, we could have some fun on Wednesday and Thursday.  Maybe some leftovers on Friday for longboards only ?

2-Storms-n-Gaston-08-29-2016-at-837PM-compliments-wunderground


Yep, Tuesday is flip floppin, and may have an epic daybreak session, but keep your eyes for Wednesday.

I’ll update a lot more on Monday, but we do have 3 storms involved again, 91L is the one close to land and in North Florida land, while Gaston will begin it’s turn toward Europe on Wednesday.  Hopefully storm 99L will fizzle out as it passes under or thru the Southern tip of our state.

The 120 buoy is down for now, so we won’t have that 8-10 hour window to let us know the swell is approaching.  The 20 mile buoy no action, nor Ft. Pierce.

The models show 3-5 foot on Tuesday or Wednesday, but don’t let that keep your hopes down on size.  As I shared the other day, Hurricane Leslie was 4 feet at 11 or 12 seconds and put up some spotty 11 foot faces in Satellite.  So some 8 or 9 foot faces can probably be found, if not bigger.

More on Monday🙂

 


I will share more later today, or maybe just Saturday.

Tropical Storm Gaston was predicted to weaken some, until Saturday.  So therefore, the models which are formed from real data, had to lessen the swell for Wed & Thursday.  But I believe, that by sometime Saturday, when it becomes a Category 1 again, and approaches it’s Cat 2 prediction, that the charts will be bigger for Wednesday again.

I could be wrong.  But this is what I believe.  Lets just hope Tropical Storm 99L  keeps weakening, so that it does not keep blowing onshore winds, and that it does not redevelop in the Gulf and become a huge storm.


Gaston-Only-Intensity-Model-08-24-16-at-11am-EST-compliments-wunderground.comCould Gaston actually bring us Big Glassy Waves?

I believe so, and here’s why:

First, Fiona is gone, so that takes away more onshore winds from 3 storms back to back.  Then, Storm 99TL, is expected to fizzle out, while Gaston intensifies.  (I added this part around 3:15 PM Wednesday, and that is, that I shouldn’t say, Storm 99TL fizzles out, because it actually will be the reason why the offshore winds that I hope arrive on Wednesday & Thursday, that is why they are so strong and adding winds out of the South to the offshores coming from Gaston.  With Fiona gone, that is why we can at least have some offshore winds.  But if 99TL is 45 mph winds and grazing over the Caribbean,  even though it doesn’t take a Northern climb, that is still enough to send a Southernly breeze up toward our coast.  I sure hope it does fizzle out though, not only for our surf, but also, more important, so people don’t have harm or damage around Cuba, Haiti & the Bahamas)

Storm details say that Gaston turns hurricane on Saturday.  But still not far enough North of us to have offshore winds by then.  However, then an upper wind shear (a low I believe) will weaken Gaston a little, and then by day 5, Monday,  it is expected to intensify up to perhaps 100 mph winds.  That is probably why the Magicseaweed.com models show such good waves for Wednesday thru possibly Friday.  This makes sense, because by Monday sometime, the storm is expected to head North as opposed to it’s current WNW bearing, and once it is a couple hundred miles North of us, wallah, those offshore winds.

Big-Wundermap-Models-99TL-n-Gaston-Storms-for-Saturday-08-27-16-at-6am-prediction-compliments-wunderground.comKeep in mind, that this storm is much further out than our normal hurricanes from Africa.  This one will be about 2000 miles offshore.  So that is why the models show a 3 or 3.5 foot swell at whatever, 13 to 15 seconds.  But remember, Hurricane Leslie of 2012 was 4 feet at 12 seconds and gave us some 11 foot face waves in Satellite Beach🙂

It’s still far out, but I think we will get 2 glassy days (Wed & Thurs perhaps next week), maybe the first a late afternoon glass, but nonetheless, 2 days of chest to 1 foot overhead, and glassy, at least down south.  And the typical 20-40% smaller up North but still perhaps awesome.

Oldwaverider


3-Storms-and-Day-of-Affect-taken-on-8-23-2016-at-832-am

Image  —  Posted: August 23, 2016 in Brevard Surf Predictions Cape Canaveral, Brevard Surf Predictions Cape Canaveral, Cocoa Beach and Satellite Beach, Florida Hurricanes
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Fiona, is she going to bring us any fun waves?

Tropical-Storm-Fiona-Model-08-19-16-347pm-Friday-compliments of Wunderground.comPerhaps, we will feel some of the fetch by evening next Saturday the 27th.  The models show some size overhead on Sunday the 28th, though with onshore winds still.  Below I post the Wunderground Storm details, which if the former of the two predictions hold up as stated below in quotes, we could have some fun waves blown in by a tropical depression, with the winds turning offshore as it reaches 100 miles North of us.  (as is always the case for the winds to turn offshore for a hurricane🙂

With a little good fortune, perhaps sometime Monday the 29th we could have some nice waves!

Storm details from Wunderground.com : “A combination of a dry air mass, increasing vertical wind shear, and convergent upper-level flow should cause Fiona to weaken for the next 3-4 days. The intensity forecast follows the guidance consensus in calling for the cyclone to weaken to a depression by 48 hours, and then remain at about a 30 kt intensity through the rest of the forecast period. An alternative scenario is that the system weakens more than currently forecast and decays to a remnant low sometime before day 4. As noted in the previous discussion, the environmental conditions might get less hostile by day 5.”