I will share more later today, or maybe just Saturday.

Tropical Storm Gaston was predicted to weaken some, until Saturday.  So therefore, the models which are formed from real data, had to lessen the swell for Wed & Thursday.  But I believe, that by sometime Saturday, when it becomes a Category 1 again, and approaches it’s Cat 2 prediction, that the charts will be bigger for Wednesday again.

I could be wrong.  But this is what I believe.  Lets just hope Tropical Storm 99L  keeps weakening, so that it does not keep blowing onshore winds, and that it does not redevelop in the Gulf and become a huge storm.


Gaston-Only-Intensity-Model-08-24-16-at-11am-EST-compliments-wunderground.comCould Gaston actually bring us Big Glassy Waves?

I believe so, and here’s why:

First, Fiona is gone, so that takes away more onshore winds from 3 storms back to back.  Then, Storm 99TL, is expected to fizzle out, while Gaston intensifies.  (I added this part around 3:15 PM Wednesday, and that is, that I shouldn’t say, Storm 99TL fizzles out, because it actually will be the reason why the offshore winds that I hope arrive on Wednesday & Thursday, that is why they are so strong and adding winds out of the South to the offshores coming from Gaston.  With Fiona gone, that is why we can at least have some offshore winds.  But if 99TL is 45 mph winds and grazing over the Caribbean,  even though it doesn’t take a Northern climb, that is still enough to send a Southernly breeze up toward our coast.  I sure hope it does fizzle out though, not only for our surf, but also, more important, so people don’t have harm or damage around Cuba, Haiti & the Bahamas)

Storm details say that Gaston turns hurricane on Saturday.  But still not far enough North of us to have offshore winds by then.  However, then an upper wind shear (a low I believe) will weaken Gaston a little, and then by day 5, Monday,  it is expected to intensify up to perhaps 100 mph winds.  That is probably why the Magicseaweed.com models show such good waves for Wednesday thru possibly Friday.  This makes sense, because by Monday sometime, the storm is expected to head North as opposed to it’s current WNW bearing, and once it is a couple hundred miles North of us, wallah, those offshore winds.

Big-Wundermap-Models-99TL-n-Gaston-Storms-for-Saturday-08-27-16-at-6am-prediction-compliments-wunderground.comKeep in mind, that this storm is much further out than our normal hurricanes from Africa.  This one will be about 2000 miles offshore.  So that is why the models show a 3 or 3.5 foot swell at whatever, 13 to 15 seconds.  But remember, Hurricane Leslie of 2012 was 4 feet at 12 seconds and gave us some 11 foot face waves in Satellite Beach🙂

It’s still far out, but I think we will get 2 glassy days (Wed & Thurs perhaps next week), maybe the first a late afternoon glass, but nonetheless, 2 days of chest to 1 foot overhead, and glassy, at least down south.  And the typical 20-40% smaller up North but still perhaps awesome.

Oldwaverider


3-Storms-and-Day-of-Affect-taken-on-8-23-2016-at-832-am

Image  —  Posted: August 23, 2016 in Brevard Surf Predictions Cape Canaveral, Brevard Surf Predictions Cape Canaveral, Cocoa Beach and Satellite Beach, Florida Hurricanes
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Fiona, is she going to bring us any fun waves?

Tropical-Storm-Fiona-Model-08-19-16-347pm-Friday-compliments of Wunderground.comPerhaps, we will feel some of the fetch by evening next Saturday the 27th.  The models show some size overhead on Sunday the 28th, though with onshore winds still.  Below I post the Wunderground Storm details, which if the former of the two predictions hold up as stated below in quotes, we could have some fun waves blown in by a tropical depression, with the winds turning offshore as it reaches 100 miles North of us.  (as is always the case for the winds to turn offshore for a hurricane🙂

With a little good fortune, perhaps sometime Monday the 29th we could have some nice waves!

Storm details from Wunderground.com : “A combination of a dry air mass, increasing vertical wind shear, and convergent upper-level flow should cause Fiona to weaken for the next 3-4 days. The intensity forecast follows the guidance consensus in calling for the cyclone to weaken to a depression by 48 hours, and then remain at about a 30 kt intensity through the rest of the forecast period. An alternative scenario is that the system weakens more than currently forecast and decays to a remnant low sometime before day 4. As noted in the previous discussion, the environmental conditions might get less hostile by day 5.”


Mike MelitoIs it worth getting up to meet the Morning Sun?

I think so.  The scattered thunderstorms that were going to meet us at daybreak, appear to have post-poned until 10 or 11 am, well, at least in Satellite Beach🙂

This looks almost to be a groundswell, and it stretches out a couple thousand miles, (no not of full period strength), but at least covers a couple thousand miles at least🙂

Wednesday morning for 1, maybe 2 hours has a great chance of being rib to chest high, with bigger sets, and offshore SW winds in the 3-5 mph range… but maybe, and only until 9 a.m.   High tide at 8:45 am, so that’s another reason to do dawn patrol.

Enjoy it boardmen, boardwomen !

🙂

Oldwaverider

 


The swell for this weekend has been acting like a Black Friday shopper, not making up it’s mind, so is it going to deliver?  I have the 2 charts below, Swell and then Period chart for Monday at 6 am (although, tuesday looks to be the best surf day), but the Monday Period chart, shows that it is a fairly organized swell, very close to a ground swell with a fetch that goes much wider than the map of the U.S.

Swell-Size-Chart-for-Mon-06-20-16-6am-EST - Compliments of Magicseaweed.com for imageryI believe Tuesday is going to the most fun day.  Not the glassiest, but nice size and semi-clean.

The model has finally been holding for 2 days in a row now.  It’s pretty strange to have a NE swell this time of year, let alone a NE swell with this steep of a North angle to it.

 

 

 

 

Period-Chart-for-Mon-06-20-16-6am-EST - Compliments to Magicseaweed.com for imagery :)The Cape and the Pier will be blocked out quite a bit, but by Tuesday, we should all have something to ride, and I believe down South , in Satellite Beach, we can expect solid chest to head high waves, with winds which are hard to call yet, but probably slower than the charts say.  For now, I’m calling 5-10 mph ENE winds, and pretty decent form.  There is only one 2ndary swell behind the major swell, and it is aiming straight East, with less than a foot at 10 seconds, so it shouldn’t be doing anything funky to the form🙂


Yep, 3 days now, the models show Thursday with a Ground/background swell coming with rib to chest high waves and glassy.

The video below is actually a foot or two  smaller on the face, than what I expect tomorrow, but it was nice and glassy.  The surfer is my buddy Mike Melito.

The Cape will be blocked out somewhat from this swell.  The Pier should be waist high, and getting bigger, the further south you go.

As it stands, it’s a NE swell, with SW winds in the 8-12 mph range, picking up as the morning progresses.  High tide is around 8 am, which is not optimal, but pick your spot, and it should be fun.  Water temp is down to around 73 from 76 last week, so skin it or vest it.


Our incoming windswell for Friday and Saturday should give us some fun clean waves, maybe glassy.

SWELL-PERIOD-CHART-MAGICSEAWEED.COM-FOR-FRIDAY-04-01-16-6AM

SWELL-PERIOD-CHART-MAGICSEAWEED.COM-FOR-FRIDAY-04-01-16-6AM

Friday morning,  I give a better than 70% chance of being waist to chest high and semi-glass to glass.  Winds , see wind chart below, should be blowing 5-7 mph SSW from 2 in the morning till daybreak, so it should clean things up, and be semi-glass to glassy , for down south only.  Up at the Pier, it should clean, and if the winds clock SW instead, then it would be glassy everywhere🙂

Saturday morning, looks to be thigh to waist high, and semi-glassy down south with some texture, as the winds are looking stronger now, then they were the last 3 days for Saturday AM.

To the left is the SWELL PERIOD CHART (not size chart), just to show you the direction and size of the low system.  It is mostly an Easterly swell, with a little south 2ndary, and a weird NE 2ndary swell.  My hope, is the two mini swells will even each other out, LOL.

WINDS-FRIDAY-APRIL-01-2016

WINDS-FRIDAY-APRIL-01-2016

The next chart is the Weather.com WIND CHART for Friday morning.


It has hit the 120 buoy at 16 seconds, and seems to have first hit around 3 or 4 pm today.

Friday morning could be North winds, or offshore, as the winds are very light, and since land cools off quicker than sea, sometimes it blows a little offshore from that when the prevailing swell winds are very light.

Saturday is looking like the better day, with the same size but a better chance of straight offshore winds for 3 hours or so in the morning.

Sunday maybe waist high and fun.

I dropped this video in as some encouragement for tomorrow and Saturday🙂


What size and shape can we expect?  Friday morning, has a 2-4 foot ground swell in the 13-14 second period range.  Should be waist to chest at the Pier, and waist to shoulder high possibility in Satellite Beach. Winds show offshore for the first half of the morning.  I will show charts and more later today, plus winds update. It’s easy to be Negative and say a long period swell is always closeouts.  I say,  Florida has the most unpredictable ocean floor and swell reaction, so I’m saying, get up early , and hope for the best, and by all means, check 3 surf breaks if you need to.  Because, many long period swells have had great form. Surfing was not meant to be a one spot surf only sport🙂