Today and last night, How the Waves were…And, the 4 picture sequence (not 5) I have here is from the awesome Photographers of Gulfster.com .
An early Satellite Beach overhead wave ;), Image 1 of 5 in a very large sequence set of photos. I have 4 more of this sequence shot by the awesome photographers of Gulfster.com
Saturday morning update. (This original post done Friday nite) The buoys just cleared our really fast, the 20 mile just dropped from 11 feet to 8, so we may only see waist high at the Cape and Chest high down south. I’ll do a visual by 6:30 AM. Maybe it held a little more, we’ll see. Below is Friday nites post…
The Jetty , Harbor break at 7 Pm to 8 Pm Thursday night when I watched it with 2 guys out, 12 to 15 foot faces, NNW winds almost perfect glass, but not quite, with nothing smaller on the set waves. But there was definitely a few larger rogue waves. I watched a number of 15 foot faces based on seeing the rider, out 400 yards, but quite visible.
Image 2 of a many image sequence, but just 5 here for now, from I believe Satellite Beach. By Gulfster.com
Those that were not there, and those not obsessed about watching the size of waves, might say otherwise. However myself another surfer, and one of the two guys that came in confirmed the size 🙂
Image 3 of a sequence. Gulfster.com photographer
Today, I surfed by the Jetty. Solid 8 to 10 foot faces 7 to 8:30 Am with some bigger rogue sets. Perfect glass with NW winds. Yesterdays post covered what we should hope to see. When the size dropped and I was tired, we went to Officers Club and it was solid 10 to 12 foot faces (double overhead on the sets) with maybe an larger set everyone once in a while. The winds were NW to WNW, and were totally blinding. At the Jetty, no issues with spray in the eyes.
Saturday, we should see chest high sets in the Cape, and shoulder high down by Satellite. West winds in the 12 to 18 mph range. Should be really fun and probably epic.
Sunday, I don’t see much, but perhaps some waist high waves will linger.
Image 4 of a 4 image sequence. Gulfster.com photographer
We have a TD 10 headed our way from Africa that may already be showing up on the swell models.
Quick Update at 8:45 PM Thursday night; Most will assume that I am on, or was on some form of a hallucinagenic, and I’m okay with that 🙂 , however, I just got to watch 45 minutes of surf shortly before dark, and I saw one individual catch 4 rides, the 1stwitch was 6 solid feet over his head, when he made his bottom turn, and he still had 2 or 3 further to the bottom, not of the typical slopey Florida wave. The 2nd epic wave out of his 4 that we watched, which was also glassy, was he dropped in, on the same but maybe an inch taller wave 😉 and after a rentry, slipped right into a barrel, standup, but only have of the wave covered him to the waist, but he did disappear, pulled out, and preceded to get 3 or 4 rentry that required at least 30 yards coverage for each top to bottom, it was like in slow motion. We estimated that it was about 200 yards, (2 football fields, based on the fact that it was around 10 seconds ride, but also, since it was about 400 yards out paddle to get out, and he made it most of the way in except for the inside section…which by the way, his wave kept on going when he kicked out. It was really breathtaking for Florida ( I could care less how corney it sounds, but I love guessing numbers, stats, financial data and trends, finding changes in treands, plus distance when I run 3 to 4 times a week, so am I anal , you make the call, and this site to see was awesome , especially for Northern Brevard County. The original post from today continues below starting with the Teahupoo video which is breathtaking again…a little poetic sounding, but my bad 😉 Last comment, I believe my numbers for 6:30 – 7 AM session made in this afternoons post earlier today at 1 PM, is still accurate, so take it or leave it 🙂
Friday morning surf report in a minute…I had to drop this video of Teahupoo (cho-pooh), from The Billabong Pro in Tahiti. It is absolutely incredible taken from a helicopter.
Friday morning, On the high side, with the models for Satellite Beach at daybreak, 10.5 feet at 13 seconds, in Satellite Beach we could see 15 foot plus faces. The winds are still looking 25 to 30 mph NW until noon and then WNW. There will be gusts over 35 mph, but that’s still less than TD Hanna in “09”. But by then the size has dropped 4 feet in face size.
Friday morning, Our models show 6 feet at 15 seconds climbing to 8 feet at 11 seconds at 9 AM At the Cape and Cocoa Beach, the Cape should see 10 to 12 foot faces with a rogue set every now and then, glassy, lots of spray with 25 to 30 mph NW winds, and gusts a little higher. The lefts should be incredible. High tide is 5:45, which is the best condition we could ask for, high going low.The size will probably kick up from daybreak to 9 AM a couple feet, and then start dropping fast by noon, but not to fast 🙂 By noon, we’ll probably have 8 to 10 foot faces and then lose a foot every couple hours.
The rain should be pretty significant in the morning so be ready for that, and also, for you old guy surfers, 2 guys, both 49 years old, very competent surfers drowned in the surf during Hurricane Florence in Sept of 2006. In fact the waves that day were 6 to 10 foot overhead, and this barrell taken shows that at Satellite Beach were this photo, this one taken just before one of the guys Rob drowned. He was a 15 or 16 year old surfers father.
Watch the Sea Lice stings “sea lice” which are actually the larvae of Thimble jellyfish. And also watch the big big Moon Jellyfish. I walked the beach at 8 this morning, and I saw one that was about a foot in diameter. I believe they are “Moon Jellyfish” They are clear, round, and inch or more thick, with 4 purple membranes if you will in the center. I will try to update later today with a photo of these large Moon Jellyfish.
South of Minuteman, with those winds, should produce slight offshore to sideshore winds.
North of Minuteman, we take a size hit but have the glass.
Saturday, shoulder to head high , 20 mph west winds and epic, anywhere.
The model for 6 AM Friday morning looks to be a glitch, and my guess is it will be around 8.5 feet at 13 or 14 seconds, but we'll see. The storm picked up some speed and now will share it size while its dark. Compliments of magicseaweed.com
Friday is the day. For 36 hours the models have been consistently telling me this. The chart shows 6 AM Friday morning. The Hurricane once it gets a little past us, will give us the morning offshore winds, Irene should be around 250 miles east of us, so we should still have some heavy rain Friday morning, no lightning, just rain and wind.
Friday morning, the swell is looking to be 10.5 feet at 13 seconds at 3 AM, but, it has gotten weird and the models show a really fast drop to 6 feet at 15 seconds at 6 AM. I believe that to be a glitch, the 10.5 feet at 13 seconds translates from probably 12 to 16 foot faces, depending on the break you go to. But, if it has dropped to even 8 feet at 13 or so seconds, then the size should be 10 to 12 foot faces. The winds for 24 hour have been pointing at NNW winds before light and maybe till 8, and NW winds by 8 AM in the 22 to 25 mph range. There will probably be gusts in the 30 or 35 range.
This should be totally epic. Anywhere North of Minuteman Causeway is your best bet if you want offshore winds. Satellite Beach would be sideshore to slightly offshore with NW winds.
Thursday, will be bigger than today in the morning, as the Hurricane rolls in and peaks between midnight Thursday and 6 AM Friday morning. In the morning on Thursday it will be overhead but probably weaker than today, but by 6 or 7 PM, the full size should be here and some pretty huge chop with around 15 mph ENE to NE winds all day, probably some higher gusts in there.
Saturday, I think we’ll have some chest to shoulder high epic leftovers with 20 mph West offshore winds. Surf anywhere, with West winds, down South should be great.
Sunday, who cares 🙂 Well I do, but I’d like to see some more charts by Friday before I make an educated guess. Hah, this stuff is all guesswork after your face turns blue from looking at data 5 times a day, 7 days a week 🙂
Hurricane Irene position as of 6 Am Tuesday morning, compliments of stormpulse.com, 100 mph winds, and on its way to a category 4 hurricane.
Update; 6:30 PM Tuesday night, from the 8:00 Am report this morning.
Now the storm has slowed enough to give us back the 8.5 feet at 12 seconds at daybreak. What’s that mean? Friday morning it ought to give us double overhead waves at the pier and at least in Satellite Beach. Plus, the wind models are showing NW at daybreak instead of N or NNW, and the winds have slowed down to the NW in the 30 mph range with some stronger gusts, but at least they’re not in the 40’s. Even at 9 Am we could still see some 5 to 6 foot overhead sets.
Saturday morning, looks like shoulder to head high with strong but reasonable offshore winds around 20 mph out of the west.
If this model could hold, we would have our huge epic day, and a head high epic day on Saturday.
Also, Irene model projections have shifted slightly. As of 5 PM tonight, instead of a direct path toward Wilmington, NC, it appears to be heading for a brush with Cape Hatteras and then toward New York. The storm Friday morning looks like it will be about 230 miles east of us. BUT, YA NEVER KNOW WHAT CAN CHANGE SO KEEP SOME EXTRA BATTERIES, CAN FOOD, CAT OR DOG FOOD AND SOME CANDLES AND A BATTERY FAN AROUND 🙂
Below, is the forecast I gave at 8 AM this morning.
Irene is a Cat 2, 100 mph winds as of early this morning. Pray for the folks at Wilmington, N.C.
Surf; The storm model has moved up its time frame, so the main power and size of the surf will be while we sleep Thursday nite. But for those that felt it would be too big, now it will be perfect for you.
Friday morning, the winds (this is a weak model on winds, but Wednesday night I will have 62.6 to 80% accurate winds for Friday morning once I can use weather.com models) anyhow as it stands the winds turn NNW by 8 Am ish, are still holding in the 35 to 45 mph range, so there’s no reason for dawn patrol except to beat the crowds 🙂
The models show that at 2 Am Friday morning, where Irene should be, and the arrow I placed is to show where we want the Hurricane to be after the Friday 2 Am model, so that it provides offshore winds. Compliments of stormpulse.com
Size, now I’m calling 4 to 5 foot overhead at daybreak, and by NW wind time, after 9 Am anyhow, I believe at the pier it will still be 3 to 4 foot overhead on the sets.
Remember, TS Hannah, which at daybreak until 10 am had some 10 foot overhead sets, it was about 60 miles or 100 miles offshore. (I sat in Marlins and had breakfast so I could see people dropping in and how many bodies could be stacked on their shoulders to establish wave face size. And it was almost 2 bodies, almost triple overhead on the big sets, but not quite.) But Hannah, had 35 NNW winds until noon at least.
My point, is , don’t think the 35 mph plus winds will make it unsurfable. Just bring your heaviest board, and duck your head until you catch that wave, and pounce on the front of your board, and you’ll have a great sesh.
Down south it should be a foot bigger or so.
The swell bar chart model shows that it peaks from midnight to 3 Am Thursday night or early Friday morning, but we still should expect a 6 to 7.5 foot swell (not wave size) by the time the winds turn offshore for us here at the cape. Magicseaweed.com model provided. As you can see, we should have some chest high waves even on Saturday.
The cape ought to be great because of the wind direction, N to NW winds until the size really drops after lunch, and then anywhere will be good, south of Minuteman.
The first picture is stormpulse.com’s 6 Am animation of Irene, and the 2nd picture is the projection of where it should be on Friday at 2 Am. The arrow I placed is where we want the storm to be so the winds are offshore.
As the 3rd picture (swell chart from magicseaweed.com or any other model) might show, is we may have some nice waves in the chest high range on Saturday morning also, with 25 mph plus offshore winds.
We’ll give an update later to see how the cane has slowed or sped up.
Just kidding, this is Dungeons , S. Africa from yesterday, Sunday, Aug. 21,2011 compliments of magicseaweed.com
Hurricane Irene now has a great chance of giving us waves Friday morning in a big way!
I have 3 shots here, the first I’m just kidding…
The 2nd is the chart of Hurricane Irene.
The third is the swell report, which shows a possible of 15 foot or bigger wave face size.
TS Hannah on Sept 5, 2009 was about 100 miles provided us on the big sets, 10 foot overhead waves at the Pier, though I didn’t paddle out until they were in the 6 to 8 foot overhead range.
So Irene could be a little bigger. I will update tonight.
oldwaverider
Hurricane Irene as of Monday at 2 Pm, 8-22-11, stormpulse.com provided
Swell size chart for Thursday thru Saturday, on 8-22-11 Monday, magicseaweed.com and all other model providers
Johnson Avenue Surfers 