Friday still on track for 18 to 20 plus foot faces according to the models. That means 10 to 12 foot backs of the waves, afternoon. With 50 plus mph onshore winds 🙂
Magicseaweed shows the same swell model size here (not the face size, not the wave back size, but the swell size) check Magicseaweed here.
Bob Freeman’s report shows 10 to 12 foot backs for Friday, down by Satellite here.
PLAN ON HURRICANE WEATHER FRIDAY AND LOTS OF FLOODING! THIS ONE WILL BE WITHIN 200 MILES OF SHORE AND MAY HAVE A LOT OF SURGE.
Saturday is still looking like 12 to 16 foot faces depending on where ya go and it does drop from daybreak till afternoon fairly fast , with semi-glass NNW winds, but unless ya wait till mid-afternoon, you won’t have winds less than 30 mph.
Sunday, looks like 10 to 12 foot plus faces and semi-glass winds with bigger sets of course.
The Video above is 3 people getting towed into Nazarre, Portugal, Kelly Slater caught the wave of the day, looks like a 30 foot face drop, really nice wall.
This was the place that Garrett caught last year a 9 foot 16 second period swell that produced an 80 foot face wave. (they get a phenomena called refraction from other effects coming from other breaks North and South of Nazarre) So normally, the biggest sets would come in at twice the swell size, but Nazarre’s 9 foot swell becomes like a 36 foot swell, and doubles the face heights on the biggest sets.
Start jogging, paddling, eating, sleeping, this could be the biggest waves we have had in years.
This is the largest model for a storm that I have seen, and of which for 3 days straight has been at 12 and increasing in model size and intensity.
The Epic day is shaping up to be Sunday October 29, 2012, with the models showing a drop to 12.5 feet at 14 seconds.The wave size for Sunday, would be a minimum of double overhead, most likely in Satellite Beach in the 12 to 16 foot face size with side-shore winds in the 20 mph range, NNW. It could be as much as 12.5 degrees offshore if it is true NNW if you will. Offshore but very strong for the Cape. Keep in mind, that when I surfed TS Hanna, in 2009, we had 12 to 14 foot faces at the pier with 25 to 35 mph NW winds, and I got one epic ride!
Monday is the next epic day also with double overhead waves and strong 12 to 18 mph NNW offshore winds for the Cape and North CCB only, based on the models right now 🙂
Obviously, models change, but his is exciting, and the Cape, and North of 4rth Street North is the only logical place to surf if you want winds that are offshore 🙂
Friday, with the models showing 18 foot at 14 seconds, we would see a few 20 foot faces roll in like on the October “91” halloween swell !
The screenshots above and below are the swell size progression for the week in bar charts and the second chart shows the size and swell direction and wind direction as the models now show.
NOTE: In the photo I took below, the swell was an ENE swell granted, that was 6.5 feet at 12 seconds that produced a 12 foot face at least in one photo I tookin this series,
and the swell we have coming shows 18 foot at 14 seconds on Friday at noon…for now with severe onshore winds, but it is not hard to interpolate, although, you can’t just triple the face size because of the swell size, (in the photo to the left was a 9 to 10 foot face before it barreled, and the 12 to 13 foot face photo in the series was double the swell model size) but you can at a bear minimum, multiply it by 1.2, which would give you some 18 to 20 foot plus faces. Anyhow, the swell will most likely drop, but either way, it is totally fun to see the models the biggest that I have seen since 2004.
QUICK Tuesday morning 7 AM UPDATE FOR TUES THRU MONDAY! (9/4 THRU 9/10) for TS/Hurricane Leslie waves Tuesday thru Monday.
Tuesday AM, shoulder to head high down south, and building a little thru the day. Offshore SSW to SW winds until 10 AM only! GET OUT EARLY TO GET THE OFFSHORES.
Wednesday,head high to overhead waves, glassy until maybe 11 AM
Thursday, swell drops to shoulder high (down south), and then builds more thru the day. Should be glassy until close to Noon!
Friday, BIGGER! Probably 2 to 3 foot overhead with some 4 foot overhead sets, glassy for a few hours until 11ish.
Saturday, BIGGER! Probably 2 to 5 foot overhead cleanup sets, glassy until late morning again.
SUNDAY, IS THE BIGGEST DAY NOW! By late early morning it should be a 7 foot at 15 or 16 second period swell. What’s this mean? GREAT CHANCE OF DOUBLE OVERHEAD WAVES! MY CALL, 10 TO 12 FOOT FACES ON THE SET WAVES, WITH AN OCASSIONAL 13 or 14 FOOT FACE IF YOU LOOK FOR IT!.
Why do I think we will see some 12 to 14 foot face waves on Sunday? Well this past November 10, 2011 swell produced 10 to 13 foot faces and the swell was weaker, 6 foot at 11 seconds (Satellite Beach only), see the post here, and then see the data and my photos at Magicseaweed.com here. The swell for this Sunday September 9, 2012 is 40% more powerful in force and 1 foot bigger in swell size, so that is what I use to back up my bold claims 🙂
Last, Monday also looks to be 3 to 4 foot overhead also.
Like Ross at CFLsurf.com says, these are the days that you pay for tickets to Costa Rica or somewhere 🙂
Full size images below if you want to click on them and see full screen.
OUCH! Man, the Sea Lice were absolutely brutal today.The Moon Jellyfish were also floating around in their 8 inch to 1 foot diameter glory. After I felt like someone was testing out a low amperage taser inside my boardshorts, then I was forced to do 3 or 4 reverse dumbell curls with a 15 to 20 pound jellyfish 😉 Overall, it’s pretty funny to think about. The water at the Cape was not crowded, gee, I wonder why. (The reason why the 15 or 20 pound jellyfish, is because I guess this type of Jellyfish really holds water while floating)
Note: As I mentioned a week or two ago, the Sea Lice are larvae from jelly fish, and are the little critters that crawl up your shorts. However, for those that get nailed by a Moon Jellyfish (this text is from http://www.longbeachislandjournal.com/animals/moon-jellyfish; Fortunately the stingers of this species are relatively mild. Most people that come into contact with moon jellyfish have little reaction. Some may feel a bit of a stinging sensation but even this can be relatively mild compared to what can occur with more troublesome jellyfish species. Many moon jellies you find no longer have any stingers attached to them. Okay, now that that is out of the way, back to surf conditions, Photos, etc.
The photos I took last Thursday, at O’ Club, September 8th 2011, and as I mentioned in a post a couple days ago, Thursday morning, it was huge like Wednesday, 1 to 4 foot overhead, not peeling as good, more closeouts, and by 11 ish the size dropped to just overhead, and by the time I took these pictures, it was shoulder to head high, with an occasional overhead wave. It was the first time I used the camera, so yeah, the lighting bites, the sun was glaring on the LCD screen, so it was almost guesswork 🙂 But it was pretty cool, cause the 16 power zoom brought 250 yard plus surfers in fairly close.
How the Waves were today, around 8 AM at the Cape, it was waist to chest high and peeling left and right beautifully. The winds were NNW around 6, and switched North before 11. There were more closeouts than yesterday, but if you waited 5 or 6 minutes for a wave there were 100 to 150 yard rides to be had. I saw Scooter get a few on his 7’2″ inch Quiet Flight board. I don’t know if his trip to Costa Rica had anything to do with his being all over the face of the waves, but he was definitely having an entertaining rip session. His wife was having a great longboard session and was tough as nails with the Sea Lice and Jellyfish 🙂
Thursday, size should be around stomach to chest high at the Cape and close to head high in Satellite Beach. Winds ought to be WSW at daybreak in the 5 to 8 mph range (and a few hours before, so there probably won’t be any 7:00 AM morning sickness like there was today). The winds swing around to NW by 10, NNW by 11 ish, and onshore by noon, so again, don’t hang out late tonight if that keeps you from a great early morning session. High tide was around 9:30 AM today so I guess that brings it to 10:20 Thursday.
Friday the size drops but should still be thigh (Cape) to stomach (down South at Patrick or Satellite) , winds light SW by daybreak swinging to NNW by 11 ish, and then onshore.
We have a Northeaster swell that rolls in on top of the leftover Maria waves Saturday, but it should be brisk NE winds to go with it, so don’t get your hopes up for perfection, if you look at it that way, then maybe it’ll be fun.
Full size images below if you want to click on them and see full screen.
The photos here are from the Cape today. It was thigh to waist high and glassy early at the Cape, but we all got out late…Or at least I did, okay, had some work to do 🙂 Down South I haven’t heard but I assume it hit chest high solid today. Dr. John for the first two pics, then Ron, followed by Chad.
(My apologies, I left the camera on full zoom from taking 250-300 yards out pictures down South from Hurricane Katia last Thursday, so the centering got screwed up on a lot of these pics, still learning my friends camera 😉
What is Maria gonna bring us for Wednesday and Thursday ? Besides Sea Lice and Jellyfish? (actually I didn’t find them to annoying but for some, the reactions to the Lice were more intense)
Wednesday will be close to chest high for the Cape and Head high plus down South.RC’s will probably have a few one foot overhead drops…yeaaaawwwwwwwww! The Cape should have 8 mph NNW winds until around 10 AM, then onshore. Satellite Beach is showing NW winds until 10 AM so actually, Satellite Beach with light NW winds, that is the place to be. It will have some overhead drops and shoulder high lines.
Thursday, about the same, the period of the swell drops a bit and maybe the size 6.4 inch drop, almost chest high Cape, head high down South.The winds though are better, 4 to 8 mph WNW winds at daybreak so down South will have the size and form. The winds swing around to NNW by 11 ish so don’t wait around to get out 😉
Friday, who cares? Just kidding; Probably waist to stomach at the Cape, and chest to shoulder high down South, and probably a few hours of offshore winds until 10. Wednesday night I’ll have a fix on the actual wind direction and speed.
We may have a NE’ r wind swell coming in Friday and Saturday but don’t expect much from it.
The pics are from the neighborhood taken late around 9:30 to 10 AM, it was already blowing N, but still fun waves and the shoulders held up great so we may be in for a really sweet session Wed and Thurs if the swell gives us that kind of
Katia will have some waves for us in the morning. They kind of sent something our way a few hours ago, but the real strength won’t start till the morning. (Monday morning) Sea Lice are pretty bad again, so get out and buy and try SeaSafe Jellyfish and Sea Lice repellent. Supposedly it works for before the fact, not after. See photo of Lice below.
Monday should have some chest high waves for us and growing thru the day. The angle of the swell, it’s hard to tell how it will come in for the Cape until another day or so, but I think we’ll see chest high down south for sure, and by the end of the day, chest at the Cape and bigger down south. South winds from 8 to 15 mph with maybe stronger gusts.
Tuesday, a little bigger, shoulder high and growing, South winds also, but maybe a few hours of SSW winds. Need I say, South winds mean first Playalinda (32 degrees offshore) , 2nd Spanish House/Sebastian Inlet (26 degrees offshore). Definitely, go south of Minuteman Causeway for your best chase for semi-glass or minimal chop.
Wednesday, we should have some overhead waves, probably head high to slight overhead at the Cape, and a couple feet overhead down south. SW winds for a few hours in the morning, so get out early. (though the winds call is iffy, until I check them out Monday night or Tuesday morning for a 75 to 80 % accuracy call for Wednesday morning.
Thursday chest high to overhead as the models look with possible NW winds the first few hours in the morning.
Friday, strangely enough the size looks to increase a foot over Thursday with WNW winds possible in the morning.
Beyond Friday is getting real iffy to try and call. It is not confirmed that that is a true sea lice photo above, perhaps someone can let me know.
Monday is the last day of the NKF 26th Annual Surf Festival, so get down there and check it out, with the additional thrust in waves from Katia.
The photo above is my buddy from Newport Beach Rob’s friend Clay surfing a classic day at Punta Mango , El Salvador a couple years ago.
Full size images below if you want to click on them and see full screen.
FRIDAY NITE UPDATE (from this original Thursday afternoon surf report book 😉 Wind swell coming in late Saturday with waist high size and onshore winds; nothing exciting but something ridable somewhere 🙂
Sunday, the same wind swell, small, persists until late afternoon, when the first dribble of Cane Katia starts sending in waves. Playalinda and Spanish House could have some nice chest high size and slight offshore winds (SSE to SE; S winds are 32 degrees offshore at Playalinda and 26 degrees at Spanish House). 2nd light to RC’s will have sideshore SSE to SE winds.
Monday and Tuesday will be growing from chest to overhead by Tuesday , right now looking onshore winds in the 15 to 20 range.
Wednesday and Thursday will be pushing the 2 to 4 foot plus overhead range, also with onshore winds, but………….Thursday and or Friday (or both days), could be the big and offshore wind days. So we will keep you updated on that mostly, once Tuesday and Wednesday night roll around when I can get more accurate wind data.
Oh, Katia is still a Cat 1 Hurricane, but it still shows to be a Cat 3 by Wednesday, and should be about 850 East of Daytona at that point, so if the wind sheer models hold, it should start aiming some Northward, and if the wind sheer models don’t hold, then start packing…………just kidding, but listen close to the weather.
Here endeth the Friday , Sept. 2nd update for surf coming our way. Below is my post from Thursday afternoon…
I just don’t know if the title of this post is quite long enough…
There’s a lot going on 😉
Katia went Hurricane Category 1 hurricane late last night or this morning. Should be a Cat 3 by Monday, and by Tuesday it will only be 1100 miles from us, though the general consensus is that an upper wind sheer with keep it diverted off our part of the coastline anyhow. As the general consensus goes. Still, like I mentioned the other day, consider doing your Boy Scout stuff like water, canned goods, extra cat and dog food, batteries, fans and if you really wanna get anal, some water purification tablets…okay, I’m slipping into Alarmist syndrome here, my bad 🙂
Before we get into Katia and forecasts, we have some Hurricane Irene pics here from Saturday (the day after the big day 🙂 down around Slater Lane, mid-morning chest high waves, pretty much perfection.
The photos were taken by a surf buddy and high school friend Mike Melito. (He also did my Hurricane Earl and Danielle pics last year)
It was head high down by Satellite Beach, but I couldn’t make it down there. In between in North Cocoa Beach (as shown in these pics it was still pretty sweet) But I did surf some incredibly fun waist to stomach high waves at Johnson Ave, so needless to say, I was happy.
Also, Ross at CFLsurf.com has an incredible array of photos from Irene at his site (Picasa Web gallery) , check him out too.
The 1st Friday of the month Friday Fest of Cape Canaveral is September 2nd, this Friday. The band Vilifi, whom I heard before is awesome, 3 piece band with incredible guitar player, drummer and bass. (Obviously, those would be the 3 instruments for a 3 piece band, but my point is, each musician is incredible 🙂 If the link takes long to load, then just click on Cape Canaverals city website, and go to the 7th menu link for Friday Fest.
It still appears that Katia will start throwing us some waves Sunday night after dark, with some waist to chest high waves building Monday, onshore winds. The swell may provide some huge stuff, may last for 3 to 5 days.
The models are showing some possible offshore winds on Tuesday, which I would imagine that has to do with the storm in the Gulf which may become a cane also, heading toward Houston, cause it’s too early for Katia to be going offshore.
In Summary, aside from a little wind swell we may have in the next couple days, Monday starts Katia, and Tuesday it should be about 1100 miles offshore. If it goes North with at least 600 miles off the coast we could have some killer waves by Wednesday or Thursday.
Tropical Storm Katia on the way…….But I had to show a few more of the awesome Friday, Hurricane Irene pictures from Gulfster.com . Many of the pictures on their site are Satellite Beach, The Pier, and another spot I believe.
Tropical Storm Katia appears to be sending us waves on late Sunday or Monday, as it stands now, onshore winds bringing the storm in, in the 3 to 4 foot range. By Sunday, it looks to be about 1500 miles from us, as a Cat 2 or 3 Hurricane.
With the sole intention of being an alarmist, keep in your mind, preparation for a direct hit between us and Jacksonville. No one is saying this, just my thoughts. Consider looking at your Boy Scout list of Hurricane preparation items. Okay, here endeth the alarmist 😉 …Not! Katrina was 6 years ago in 2005. It’s like they’re related 🙂
We should have some more news on this puppy (Katia) by Wednesday night, or Thursday.
I’m waiting on some pics for Saturday, in the chest high range from Irene, by Slater Lane.
Oh, in case you didn’t hear it or see it in today’s Florida Today. Kelly Slater won the Tahiti Pro in huge waves meeting in the finals against Owen Wright.
Check out the killer slideshow at Magicseaweed.com . He was ranked 6th, after he skipped the tour in J-Bay (looked like 6 foot waves for that contest), and he caught the once in a lifetime swell in Fiji. 30 to 40 foot , tow in and paddle in. The same storm that they called the 50 year storm hitting Tasmania first, then Australia (thus the 50 year storm name) and on to Fiji and other places. That big wave surf, very similar to Teahupoo except longer rides than Teahupoo.
Don’t forget about the26th Annual NKF Surf Festival – Labor Day Weekend – Cocoa Beach – September 1-5, 2011. Read more about the Surf Festival here.
Today and last night, How the Waves were…And, the 4 picture sequence (not 5) I have here is from the awesome Photographers of Gulfster.com .
Saturday morning update. (This original post done Friday nite) The buoys just cleared our really fast, the 20 mile just dropped from 11 feet to 8, so we may only see waist high at the Cape and Chest high down south. I’ll do a visual by 6:30 AM. Maybe it held a little more, we’ll see. Below is Friday nites post…
The Jetty , Harbor break at 7 Pm to 8 Pm Thursday night when I watched it with 2 guys out, 12 to 15 foot faces, NNW winds almost perfect glass, but not quite, with nothing smaller on the set waves. But there was definitely a few larger rogue waves. I watched a number of 15 foot faces based on seeing the rider, out 400 yards, but quite visible.
Those that were not there, and those not obsessed about watching the size of waves, might say otherwise. However myself another surfer, and one of the two guys that came in confirmed the size 🙂
Today, I surfed by the Jetty. Solid 8 to 10 foot faces 7 to 8:30 Am with some bigger rogue sets. Perfect glass with NW winds. Yesterdays post covered what we should hope to see. When the size dropped and I was tired, we went to Officers Club and it was solid 10 to 12 foot faces (double overhead on the sets) with maybe an larger set everyone once in a while. The winds were NW to WNW, and were totally blinding. At the Jetty, no issues with spray in the eyes.
Saturday, we should see chest high sets in the Cape, and shoulder high down by Satellite. West winds in the 12 to 18 mph range. Should be really fun and probably epic.
Sunday, I don’t see much, but perhaps some waist high waves will linger.
We have a TD 10 headed our way from Africa that may already be showing up on the swell models.
Quick Update at 8:45 PM Thursday night; Most will assume that I am on, or was on some form of a hallucinagenic, and I’m okay with that 🙂 , however, I just got to watch 45 minutes of surf shortly before dark, and I saw one individual catch 4 rides, the 1stwitch was 6 solid feet over his head, when he made his bottom turn, and he still had 2 or 3 further to the bottom, not of the typical slopey Florida wave. The 2nd epic wave out of his 4 that we watched, which was also glassy, was he dropped in, on the same but maybe an inch taller wave 😉 and after a rentry, slipped right into a barrel, standup, but only have of the wave covered him to the waist, but he did disappear, pulled out, and preceded to get 3 or 4 rentry that required at least 30 yards coverage for each top to bottom, it was like in slow motion. We estimated that it was about 200 yards, (2 football fields, based on the fact that it was around 10 seconds ride, but also, since it was about 400 yards out paddle to get out, and he made it most of the way in except for the inside section…which by the way, his wave kept on going when he kicked out. It was really breathtaking for Florida ( I could care less how corney it sounds, but I love guessing numbers, stats, financial data and trends, finding changes in treands, plus distance when I run 3 to 4 times a week, so am I anal , you make the call, and this site to see was awesome , especially for Northern Brevard County. The original post from today continues below starting with the Teahupoo video which is breathtaking again…a little poetic sounding, but my bad 😉 Last comment, I believe my numbers for 6:30 – 7 AM session made in this afternoons post earlier today at 1 PM, is still accurate, so take it or leave it 🙂
Friday morning surf report in a minute…I had to drop this video of Teahupoo (cho-pooh), from The Billabong Pro in Tahiti. It is absolutely incredible taken from a helicopter.
Friday morning, On the high side, with the models for Satellite Beach at daybreak, 10.5 feet at 13 seconds, in Satellite Beach we could see 15 foot plus faces. The winds are still looking 25 to 30 mph NW until noon and then WNW. There will be gusts over 35 mph, but that’s still less than TD Hanna in “09”. But by then the size has dropped 4 feet in face size.
Friday morning, Our models show 6 feet at 15 seconds climbing to 8 feet at 11 seconds at 9 AM At the Cape and Cocoa Beach, the Cape should see 10 to 12 foot faces with a rogue set every now and then, glassy, lots of spray with 25 to 30 mph NW winds, and gusts a little higher. The lefts should be incredible. High tide is 5:45, which is the best condition we could ask for, high going low.The size will probably kick up from daybreak to 9 AM a couple feet, and then start dropping fast by noon, but not to fast 🙂 By noon, we’ll probably have 8 to 10 foot faces and then lose a foot every couple hours.
The rain should be pretty significant in the morning so be ready for that, and also, for you old guy surfers, 2 guys, both 49 years old, very competent surfers drowned in the surf during Hurricane Florence in Sept of 2006. In fact the waves that day were 6 to 10 foot overhead, and this barrell taken shows that at Satellite Beach were this photo, this one taken just before one of the guys Rob drowned. He was a 15 or 16 year old surfers father.
Watch the Sea Lice stings “sea lice” which are actually the larvae of Thimble jellyfish. And also watch the big big Moon Jellyfish. I walked the beach at 8 this morning, and I saw one that was about a foot in diameter. I believe they are “Moon Jellyfish” They are clear, round, and inch or more thick, with 4 purple membranes if you will in the center. I will try to update later today with a photo of these large Moon Jellyfish.
South of Minuteman, with those winds, should produce slight offshore to sideshore winds.
North of Minuteman, we take a size hit but have the glass.
Saturday, shoulder to head high , 20 mph west winds and epic, anywhere.