Well, the first question begs asking, do we have waves coming?An 03/01 9:35 PM Update re Wednesday surf. The small swell hasn’t hit the 120 mile buoy yet, so don’t get your hopes up real big. (end 03/01 9:35 PM update)
I believe Wednesdaywe shall see some really fun thigh to waist high glassy waves, with almost ground swell in power. It is a straight easterly swell, yeah, that’s a trace different then all these NE’sters huh? As it stands for now, it will be mostly cloudy Wednesday morning with 63 air temps at daybreak but warming to 68 degrees by 9 am. The winds should be SW, turning West, to WNW in the 4-8 mph range at daybreak, and picking up to the low teens by afternoon, but supposedly, still offshore.The water temp will be 68 something, so you may be able to vest it, or spring suit, or even skin it!
Okay, so check out this interview with John John just over 3 years ago. When Mark Healey, gets the pleasure of walking up to the door of John John Florence, to hand him “The Eddie” invite 🙂 You have to love, how humble John John is, when he receives it. He admits fear, and a little, duh, ah don’t know, all in a very down to earth way of just admitting, Oh Sh_ t! That is a brutal contest, but a great honor. Ya gotta love that , to just this past Wednesday, that same kid, who has always been a Pipeline master, gets thrown into the same invite, and wins the contest with such calm, such confidence, and Masterful surfing and skill!
Who doesn’t love watching Big Wave Surfing? More of the Eddie 🙂
NOTE: THIS IS A 02/28 SUNDAY 7:14 AM, UPDATE FROM YESTERDAYS POST REGARDING THE MASSIVE NE SWELL. Unfortunately, it has now shrunk half in size. We’ll keep you updated during the week. (<<< end 02/28 update) We have a massive steep steep NE ground expected next Saturday. Possibly 11-13 second period swell, with 8-9 foot of swell, by next Saturday night, as the models now show.
My friend Cliff in Hawaii, shared a photo from today. He and a friend were towing in today. I had to share a small photo that Cliff took with his cell phone today of a guy doing a bottom turn on a 30 foot face wave at Kauai today in Hawaii.
The Eddie Aikau contest could still go , on Thursday, they are expecting 50 foot faces. If it can hold up for 2 days at 40 foot faces with 20 feet of swell.
Remember Bethany Hamilton, the one arm Gutsy Surf Warrior? She’s a new Mom this year, and she hit her dream of surfing 40-50 foot (faces) Jaws, Peahi. The video has privacy settings, so you’ll have to click Bethany’s name, just under the video message below, so you can watch it on Vimeo.
the Surf big and glassy for Thursday morning?Maybe. The winds are still NNE, so I believe we will have some NNW winds before 9 am, turning North pretty strong Thursday morning. Down south may not be so hot, since that’s side shore to almost offshore winds. But up North here that is offshore. Should be head high and glassy to semi-glassy at the Pier with some texture on it, due to strong offshore NNW winds.Down south should be a lot bigger, but not so hot on wind. It’s high tide early, like 5:40 am in Satellite, or a little earlier at the Pier. So it maybe be smokin early, or with the heavy sand deposits on the bottom, it could have problems. Let’s hope the heavy sand bottom has cleared out some ! 🙂
Fridaylooks big and just barely glassy, as it now looks to be SSW, but pretty light, like 6-8 mph light. If the period of the swell was a little more consistent, I be saying almost double overhead waves. But with the fetch a little inconsistent, I believe it will be 2-4 foot overhead on the bigger sets down south, and 1-2 overhead at the Pier on the bigger sets.
Saturday will still be some head high size, but the winds are iffy right now.
Do we need to blow off work Thursday?No 🙂 It is just a wind swell, not a groundswell. But the last 3.5 foot at 8 second windswell I caught by 2nd light 2 1/2 weeks ago was 60-100 yard glassy rides with workable walls (Longboard, yes) in the thigh to rib high size. So hopefully we’ll get lucky. Thursday morningshould be thigh to waist high glass at the Pier, and maybe some rib high sets in Satellite Beach.Winds look like they will have a couple hours of SW winds in the 5-8mph range mid-morning. Then turning South to SE by 11 or noon. Wednesday night I’ll have a more accurate wind report !
Friday morningshould have some smaller leftovers with similar conditions as Thursday.
Check out this awesome video below. I haven’t ever seen Outer Reef in Hawaii this big. Waimea, yeah, Jaws, well of course, but Outer Reef?
Keala Kennelly at Outer Reef – 2015 Billabong Ride of the Year Entry – XXL Big Wave Awards
Monday, should have waist to chest high waves, maybe a few bigger sets down south, if the 2nd part of this swell comes rolling in late morning. It should jack the size up a foot bigger on the face than we have had the last few days. More details about Monday morning winds below;
The Video; an incredible late drop in on a 50 foot face at Jaws by Aaron Gold, maybe not quite as perfect as Mark Healey’s Ride of the Year entry, but still incredibly impressive, and , a Nasty Wipeout !
A little more of this swell is coming in late morning Monday, probably after high tide. Winds are South early until 10 or 11ish. It could very well blow SSW in the morning, as the light South winds are to be in the 6 to 8 mph range. Why could it blow SSW? The short of it, land absorbs the sun’s heat much more than the ocean, and overnight, the land cools very quickly and can blow offshore breezes when the prevailing winds are light, and can do so, until the sun starts to warm the land up again in the morning. That’s why these type of offshore winds can happen, but don’t last much longer than an hour or two after first light.
Will we have something fun, Sunday afternoon?BUOY JUST STARTED CLIMBING AROUND 3 AM LAST NIGHT, AS OF 8:23 AM (SUNDAY MORN UPDATE )Think so, fun with light chop in the 8 to 12 mph SE range. Now this backside rail-grabber at Jaws for a 50 foot plus face, Billabong XXL 2013, Ride of the Year entry for Mark Healey, this is once insane, massively skilled drop. He knew Jaws, and how he had to set his rail before bottom, to beat lousing his head on a White Water punch to the head :
Monday, should have a little more size to it, maybe rib to chest high, with winds more like 10 to 15 mph SE or SSE. Playalinda or Spanish House would be the place to go. South winds are 26 degrees offshore for the Inlet and Spanish House, and 36 degrees offshore at Playalinda, so for SSE winds, they could easily waver in between SSE and South.
Tuesday, a little lighter on the wind, with size drop, but could be fun longboard clean waves.