Month: November 2010

Looks like we should have some waist high glass in Cape Canaveral by early morning, probably by 7 Am. I’m taking a chance saying this because the swell was already decreasing at 5 pm today, with the waves coming in from the SE at a sharp angle, which usually means dying swell, but with the other swell coming in close, I think we’ll have nice waves in the Morning.

As I mentioned earlier today, the wind speed starts around 10 – 12 mph SSW or SW at daybreak,  and starts working its way around to the NW by mid day in the upwards of 15 – 20 mph NNW or N.

The new ground swell with a really long period 13 to 15 seconds starts rolling in by late morning to piggy back this departing wind swell, but the size should hold to waist high in the morning, and increase to Chest high by evening here, and bigger down south at the Rock breaks near the base, on down to Perkins , Hightowers lime reef breaks.

It should be high 60’s in the morning, but my early to later afternoon after the rain, it should start dropping pretty quick with the air temp.

Thursday morn (about 45 degrees in the morning , should have chest high with NNW winds till mid morning and then out of the North .

Enjoy the last warm day for a while, and some good surf.  High period swells without a huge area to develope and over an extended period of time often have many closeouts, so you’ll have to let a lot of waves pass by from Wednesday night on thru the rest of the high period swell.  Figure some gusts may hit 16 to 20 mph so that stuffs gonna blow in your eyes.  A heavier board would’nt hurt.

Have a great surf Wednesday morning.  Weather gets crappy by around 11 Am.  But then as the front passes, temps drop Wednesday, and more waves with North winds will blow hard.

Oldwaverider

Wednesday morning, The size could be waist high here in Canaveral with some winter glass, textured kinda stuff,  bigger south,  with some brisk offshore winds starting at at SSW for daybreak in the 12+ mph range , and picking up throughout the day up to 15 +, switching to the NNW.

Then we have a back to back really high period ground swell coming that should jump right onto this wind swell, which should be at the beach sometime between 2 Pm Wednesday and dinner time.  The winds ought to be out of the North with some hints of offshore, but mostly North, so it could be pretty friendly up here at the Cape.  Pick your North wind blocker spot and head out.

I’ll look at it closer tonight after I can see how the winds intend to cooperate with us for Wednesday morn.

Hope to see ya out Wednesday morn!   If it’s waist high,  then Johnson Ave. is it, otherwise, maybe a trip down to Hangars.

Have a great day!

Sorry, I had to do the long title for search engines.  I wasn’t gonna worry about it,  but my friends from out-of-town can find it now, or soon anyhow.

Okay,  Sunday morning;  As you could see by today,  that Cape Canaveral was almost totally blocked out by this NE swell.  It was 4 foot bigger on the face down by Satellite Beach.  We barely had chest high waves here, with an occasional head high drop.

Sunday morning at the pier, I revise now, to 3 to 4 foot overhead in the morning before 10,  maybe with bigger sets coming in.   The winds I believe will be NNW around 4 to 6 mph  by sometime after 3 Am, and should turn NW at first light at 3 to 4 mph until probably 9 Am.   Then they start going back NNW for a couple of hours and by noon, straight North.

At Johnson Ave,   I think we’ll see head high plus waves, with offshore winds at daybreak,  and I think we’ll have some decent shoulders to work with.   No A-frames,   but the close-outs today, we’re pretty easy to spot, and so you could wait for the shoulders.

If you head down south,  its looking NNW winds at best, so you’re looking at side shore winds with double overhead.

Should be around 56 degrees at first light,  and the water’s feels like 69 to 71,  so a spring suit should be good if you have acid-reflux,  otherwise you may want more warmth.

I haven’t been out in 5 weeks nursing my wounds (cracked rib and blown out back – I just want sympathy…)  ,  but I did try an hour today, and it felt okay,  but I kooked pretty bad 🙂

Have fun, I hope to see ya out at the pier,  if my body says go.

oldwaverider

Well,  for 4 or 5 days now,  this massive swell has been charting a 10 foot plus swell size.  This is the biggest swell I have seen or tracked since I moved here in 2004.

It is also the most perfect swell, as far as the largest body of water that the swell expands over, and how perfect the swell period animated map lays out.   Perfect even bands of green, yellow, etc.

Sunday morning looks like the day, that is the day for the most size and chance of clean form.

Sunday looks to have at least 6 feet over head,  my guess is we will see a lot of 6 foot overhead waves with some much bigger occasional sets.  The pier should just squeak by with the swell getting in full size.  I say that because this is a ENE or maybe NE swell,  and the pier is just at the edge of not getting blocked out for the size that Satellite beach and the Bahamas will be getting.  I bet the Bahamas will see 20 foot faces.  They are the only land until you get to Cape Hatteras, that has deep water close to shore, so Indicas can hold 20 foot there, plus being a point break is nice.

Saturday afternoon,  the swell peaks in size, but the winds will still be strong, maybe out of the North saturday, but the perfection of the size and period of the swell is Sunday morning at daybreak.

I believe Sunday morning, that a chance of NNW winds is very likely, in the 5 to 10 mph range, with 6  foot overhead coming in to the pier.  With bigger sets occasionally.  And if not NNW,  it should still be out of the North at less than 10 mph,  but say a prayer and then see what happens.

I’m gonna stick my neck out here,  even though this swell has a higher period than normal, meaning higher than 10 usually means lots of close-outs,  but because of the perfection of how this swell is shaped, and the angle of the swell, we could have some decent form to it.  It does help to have rocks or a jetty to hold the form a little, but we may be in for a nice surprise!

We will be crowded down (or up North here), because of the wind direction.

Make sure and have an extra leash in the car.

Wish I could be out there.  I’m still licking my wounds 🙂

Hopefully I’ll be able to get some pictures by confiscating a camera along the way.

oldwaverider

First I gotta say, the image you see is the animated period (when we say “seconds”) of the swell and not the swell chart.  By this thing being all green like that,  it is saying that a massive body of water in a couple thousand miles across is creating that.   I have never seen all green like that.   It’s like it is creating the perfect swell.  It looks to be a 14 plus period swell, but unlike the 17 second period of Hurricane Bill,  this swell we have coming is solid green across meaning it is way bigger than a hurricane in regards to the fetch of the weather body.  (“fetch”  is the distance traveled over water that winds are created from the storm)

Right now its showing double overhead as a minimum, we’ll se.

oldwaverider

I believe we will have some overhead waves Monday morning, with North winds in the 10 to 20 mph range, so Jetty Park, and the South side of the pier should work best.   Could be some really fun waves at the Port, maybe even clean, but size should be there.

Now, Tuesday morning now looks to be chest high up here by Canaveral with bigger sets, and NW winds in the 8 to 12 mph range, so get excited!  Yeah, the data can change,  but both Magic Seaweeds combined swell report (and magical programmers), along with our local weather channel both show offshore for Tuesday.

Okay,  in a way I was wrong about the swell coming in late Saturday and/or this morning.   It’s because the powerful offshore winds held or I should say literally pushed the swell away from the beach longer than I thought they would.

Ya’ll no I get long-winded, so for the quick report, you can check out http://www.cflsurf.com,  or for some more detail about what’s happening, then follow along with me here 🙂

Having 2 big storm systems like this,  just lots of strange swells colliding from the North and from the South can create confusion, and definitely not an exact science.  The Nor’easter from the North and  brother Tomas from the South.  I’m calling it Thomas, call it what you want 😉   Tomas, weakened a little quicker, and is heading away more easterly than it was, so I think that’s why we should see some offshore winds on Tuesday now.  But that’s also why the swell is dropping quicker , but Monday and Tuesday could be pretty darn fun !

Anyhow,  our big indicator is the swell that’s hitting the 120 mile buoy, and the direction of the winds from the 120, the 20 and nearshore.   Well,  the winds have finally turned NNE at the 120 , at the 20, and at the 1 mile (which is actually down right now ;(    ,  but at the 120,  the swell size jumped from 7 ft, at 7 second period,  up to 10.5 feet at 8 seconds as of 1 Pm today, and the seconds will be increasing from now thru Monday morning which means, groundswell by sometime Monday, and we should have a groundswell thru Wednesday morning,  and then a new swell rolling in late Wednesday and for the next few days.

And, looks like waves all week, with some huge waves coming next weekend.

We’ll try to keep ya updated on the winds for Monday morning and Tuesday morning.

Have a great Sunday, and take a look at the beach to see the swell rolling in late today.

Later,

oldwaverider (Art)