Author: oldwaverider

Our swell took perhaps a 10 hour delay or so to hit the 120 buoy, but it appears to be coming in there now.  At 3 Am today it hit 6 feet at 9 seconds,  and just jumped to 7.5 feet at 9 seconds at 9 Am this morning.

Anyhow, it looks like the bulk of the wave size at the beach should be Thursday morning, sometime between mid-morning at early afternoon,  with winds (according to weather channel for Cocoa Beach) showing to be in the 3 to 6 mph range going from the SE at daybreak to  SSE into mid-morning. (It seems to me that we would really need some stronger onshore winds Thursday morning to bring this swell in , like 10 to 20 mph, but I’m gonna leave weather channels prediction until I see how it looks tonight)

If that holds true,  Thursday  could be some fun overhead lines coming in down south with decent clean form, and waist to shoulder-high waves here at the Cape. Then the winds pick up gradually thru the day Thursday,  10 to 15 mph turning ESE, and then slowing down to 5 to 10 mph at daybreak Friday morning out of the SE.  Again,  it could be decent clean form Friday morning.

Our chance for perfect offshore winds Saturday morning has dimmed some,  GET OUT THERE BEFORE 8 AM! TO GET THE BEST CONDITIONS  because the moving swell chart models show NNW  winds in the 1 to 3 mph range, however I think the way land warms quicker than sea which creates kind of a mini-high pressure may throw NW winds for a couple of hours without any charts telling us so, but I would say get out early Saturday morning to take advantage of the slight offshore winds, because by late morning it should be direct onshore winds in the 5 to 10 range.

Sorry this report got really anal,  but it’s a lot of non-uniform data for this swell.

By the way, I recycled the pic of me at Perkins cause I’ve run out of surf pics, and until some Johnson Avenue area surfers shoot me some jpegs,  I’ll have to use my own , and or some big wave pics going on worldwide.

Be sure to check out the new slide show of a new XXL entrant for Mullaghmore Head in Ireland.  (kind of in the LaHinch Beach area).   Richie Fitzgerald (from the British Isles) got drilled really bad and tore some ligaments in his leg from a massive closeout,  and got held down twice and almost passed out.   One tough individual.  It is being called the Teahupoo of the North Atlantic, with 20 foot barrels inside. See the slide show from magicseaweed.com here.

oldwaverider

We have an easterly kinda nor-easterly swell that should be hitting us sometime Tuesday evening, and full size Wednesday probably in the afternoon, hoorah!

However, (always a negative to go with it in surf reports),  the swell appears to be a strong ground swell but big chop, until my guess Saturday and possibly Sunday morning.  The winds may only be 10 to 15 mph by Wednesday after noon, slowing down from 15 to 20 in the morning.

The swell is coming mostly from the east and should be dropping overhead chop by Wednesday morning,  we will probably see some head high waves in the Cape, with overhead waves in Satellite Beach and 2nd light.  By mid-afternoon, the winds should be down to 10 to 15 mph, and the easiest paddle out time with cleanest conditions Wednesday would be around 3 PM. (it’s low going high at that time, although high going low is always better, but at least the paddle out into the chop will be the most smooth at 3 PM.  high going low it will be dark out so that’s a no brainer 🙂

Conditions change as the storm speeds up, slows down and other factors of course.  (the classic C.Y.A. statement 🙂

Saturday could be chest high plus and glassy down south.  And on Friday, Playalinda could have some offshore winds there since direct South winds in Playalinda are 32 degrees off shore, and Friday it looks like the winds turn southerly in the mid-day around 6 to 10 mph.

Be ready for some glass anytime between Friday and Monday, from waist-high to head high depending on how well the swell does.  We’ll provide updates as it moves closer to our epic surf shores.

oldwaverider

I’m giving about a 20% chance of us having waves Saturday morning.   Maybe thigh to waits high if we do,  but the NE ‘ster above is pushing west to east, and even though we see some arrows coming from the east-southeast,  the area of swell is very undefined.

When you look at the moving period chart,  you can really see the inconsistency of any decent size piece of water providing a large swell area.  It goes from dark to light, but scattered all over.  The 3rd image in this post, shows the Combined Swell Breakdown chart, and you can see at 6 and 9 am that a substantial wind swell in the 4rth column is listed.

The offshore winds which probably start just after midnight,  are going to be blowing probably 10 to 15 mph out of the WNW in the Am,  and at that kind of speed, it could very easily hold a weak swell way off the shoreline.  This may create the 3rd swell in the last image below, that shows a wind swell blowing from the shoreline, out to sea.  For a look at the Cocoa Beach Surf Report page of magicseaweed.com here.

Sorry I sound kind of negative on this, but on the bright side we could have a little sun for a couple of hours from 9 to 11 before the big cloudy, 20 mph winds from the west pick up.

If something does make it to the beach, high tide is around 9:15 or so,  so either dawn patrol or 11:30 Am is the best time to head out for the tides.

Fingers crossed, but I won’t be too optimistic 🙂

oldwaverider

Sunday morning for Brevard, is still looking like waist high waves, and 6-8 mph NW winds at daybreak, and turning N by 9 am so get out early.

The air temp should be around 55 and clear/sunny by 7:30 Am, and water temp 61 by the Port and 62 down south.  High tide is 4:30 Am so being in the water by 7:30 latest gives you the best of our tides , high going low, and the winds should be offshore till maybe 9 Am.

Waist high plus for Satellite Beach.  Hope to see you out!

This photo on the left was from a swell that hit Oregon , Nelscott Reef,  they had 25-35′ face heights, and most of the guys did tow in, but a couple of the other guys waited until the winds went perfect offshore, and then did paddle in.

I love the closeup perspective of this shot as he’s getting ready to hammer down the face.  Check out the 8 shot sequence at magicseaweed.com If only Florida had the type of ocean floor bottom to give these to us 🙂

I’ll take what we get.  Later on.

oldwaverider

I mentioned the other day that this Nor’easter will throw remants at us for late Saturday, but mostly Sunday morning and possibly Monday.

It should bring some nice waist high waves from South Cocoa Beach, and further south on Sunday morning.  It may touch the Cape, but the swell angle is pretty steep.

The winds as of 8 tonight are showing out of the North at 3 to 4 mph by 6 am Sunday morning and turning NNE by mid-morning.

With 3 or 4 mph winds, the North wind breaks of CCB may work, and even Satellite which even though its a South wind area, should still be good.    I believe (I’ll stick my neck out a little here :),  and say that Sunday morning for 2 or 3 hours we may have NNW or NW winds until 9 or so.   With the warming air temp from 43 Friday morn to 54 at daybreak Sunday morn, that warming land mass may cause the winds to blow offshore a couple hours.

Water temp should be 60-61,  air temp should be 60 by 9 AM.  Best time to get out is 7:30 AM,  with high tide  going low, with 3 to 4 mph N to NW offshore winds until 9 or 9:30.   Of course I’m anal – retentive !  That ain’t gonna change 🙂

We may have some sunshine too, at least in and out!  Hey, if you’re stressed out, or life is sucking for you, and you need to get some peace,  then after a morning surf session, please visit Christ Lutheran Church with Pastor Greg at 11 Am.  Casual beach shorts work fine, no ties…  Check it out here.

Have a fun Sunday early morning sesh.

oldwaverider