Tropical Storm Katia on the way…….But I had to show a few more of the awesome Friday, Hurricane Irene pictures from Gulfster.com . Many of the pictures on their site are Satellite Beach, The Pier, and another spot I believe.
Tropical Storm Katia appears to be sending us waves on late Sunday or Monday, as it stands now, onshore winds bringing the storm in, in the 3 to 4 foot range. By Sunday, it looks to be about 1500 miles from us, as a Cat 2 or 3 Hurricane.
With the sole intention of being an alarmist, keep in your mind, preparation for a direct hit between us and Jacksonville. No one is saying this, just my thoughts. Consider looking at your Boy Scout list of Hurricane preparation items. Okay, here endeth the alarmist 😉 …Not! Katrina was 6 years ago in 2005. It’s like they’re related 🙂
We should have some more news on this puppy (Katia) by Wednesday night, or Thursday.
I’m waiting on some pics for Saturday, in the chest high range from Irene, by Slater Lane.
Oh, in case you didn’t hear it or see it in today’s Florida Today. Kelly Slater won the Tahiti Pro in huge waves meeting in the finals against Owen Wright.
Check out the killer slideshow at Magicseaweed.com . He was ranked 6th, after he skipped the tour in J-Bay (looked like 6 foot waves for that contest), and he caught the once in a lifetime swell in Fiji. 30 to 40 foot , tow in and paddle in. The same storm that they called the 50 year storm hitting Tasmania first, then Australia (thus the 50 year storm name) and on to Fiji and other places. That big wave surf, very similar to Teahupoo except longer rides than Teahupoo.
Don’t forget about the26th Annual NKF Surf Festival – Labor Day Weekend – Cocoa Beach – September 1-5, 2011. Read more about the Surf Festival here.
Sunday surf, nothing. There may be an hour or two of longboard ridable waves, but anything called a swell has left the 20 and 120 mile buoy already.
But we did have some really fun stuff. I will have a few pictures from Saturday mid-morning surf from Slater Lane break. Some waist and some chest high waves, perfect glass kinda stuff.
Also, I’ll be posting some of the big waves photos here in a day or so.
I will be a happy individual when I get my hands on an SLR, but for now, I am content with accumulating photos from friends and associates 🙂
I don’t see anything down the pipe; that TD 10 doesn’t seem to be strenghtening now, and a Disturbance below Cape Verde off of Africa, is an area of interest, and the cool thing is, it’s getting close, its only 3970 miles from Daytona ;(
Rest up, enjoy the talk about the great surf that you had, the nut that cut you off, the fact that you had the b_ _ _s to paddle into the big (for Florida) , waves that we had.
Today and last night, How the Waves were…And, the 4 picture sequence (not 5) I have here is from the awesome Photographers of Gulfster.com .
Saturday morning update. (This original post done Friday nite) The buoys just cleared our really fast, the 20 mile just dropped from 11 feet to 8, so we may only see waist high at the Cape and Chest high down south. I’ll do a visual by 6:30 AM. Maybe it held a little more, we’ll see. Below is Friday nites post…
The Jetty , Harbor break at 7 Pm to 8 Pm Thursday night when I watched it with 2 guys out, 12 to 15 foot faces, NNW winds almost perfect glass, but not quite, with nothing smaller on the set waves. But there was definitely a few larger rogue waves. I watched a number of 15 foot faces based on seeing the rider, out 400 yards, but quite visible.
Those that were not there, and those not obsessed about watching the size of waves, might say otherwise. However myself another surfer, and one of the two guys that came in confirmed the size 🙂
Today, I surfed by the Jetty. Solid 8 to 10 foot faces 7 to 8:30 Am with some bigger rogue sets. Perfect glass with NW winds. Yesterdays post covered what we should hope to see. When the size dropped and I was tired, we went to Officers Club and it was solid 10 to 12 foot faces (double overhead on the sets) with maybe an larger set everyone once in a while. The winds were NW to WNW, and were totally blinding. At the Jetty, no issues with spray in the eyes.
Saturday, we should see chest high sets in the Cape, and shoulder high down by Satellite. West winds in the 12 to 18 mph range. Should be really fun and probably epic.
Sunday, I don’t see much, but perhaps some waist high waves will linger.
We have a TD 10 headed our way from Africa that may already be showing up on the swell models.
Quick Update at 8:45 PM Thursday night; Most will assume that I am on, or was on some form of a hallucinagenic, and I’m okay with that 🙂 , however, I just got to watch 45 minutes of surf shortly before dark, and I saw one individual catch 4 rides, the 1stwitch was 6 solid feet over his head, when he made his bottom turn, and he still had 2 or 3 further to the bottom, not of the typical slopey Florida wave. The 2nd epic wave out of his 4 that we watched, which was also glassy, was he dropped in, on the same but maybe an inch taller wave 😉 and after a rentry, slipped right into a barrel, standup, but only have of the wave covered him to the waist, but he did disappear, pulled out, and preceded to get 3 or 4 rentry that required at least 30 yards coverage for each top to bottom, it was like in slow motion. We estimated that it was about 200 yards, (2 football fields, based on the fact that it was around 10 seconds ride, but also, since it was about 400 yards out paddle to get out, and he made it most of the way in except for the inside section…which by the way, his wave kept on going when he kicked out. It was really breathtaking for Florida ( I could care less how corney it sounds, but I love guessing numbers, stats, financial data and trends, finding changes in treands, plus distance when I run 3 to 4 times a week, so am I anal , you make the call, and this site to see was awesome , especially for Northern Brevard County. The original post from today continues below starting with the Teahupoo video which is breathtaking again…a little poetic sounding, but my bad 😉 Last comment, I believe my numbers for 6:30 – 7 AM session made in this afternoons post earlier today at 1 PM, is still accurate, so take it or leave it 🙂
Friday morning surf report in a minute…I had to drop this video of Teahupoo (cho-pooh), from The Billabong Pro in Tahiti. It is absolutely incredible taken from a helicopter.
Friday morning, On the high side, with the models for Satellite Beach at daybreak, 10.5 feet at 13 seconds, in Satellite Beach we could see 15 foot plus faces. The winds are still looking 25 to 30 mph NW until noon and then WNW. There will be gusts over 35 mph, but that’s still less than TD Hanna in “09”. But by then the size has dropped 4 feet in face size.
Friday morning, Our models show 6 feet at 15 seconds climbing to 8 feet at 11 seconds at 9 AM At the Cape and Cocoa Beach, the Cape should see 10 to 12 foot faces with a rogue set every now and then, glassy, lots of spray with 25 to 30 mph NW winds, and gusts a little higher. The lefts should be incredible. High tide is 5:45, which is the best condition we could ask for, high going low.The size will probably kick up from daybreak to 9 AM a couple feet, and then start dropping fast by noon, but not to fast 🙂 By noon, we’ll probably have 8 to 10 foot faces and then lose a foot every couple hours.
The rain should be pretty significant in the morning so be ready for that, and also, for you old guy surfers, 2 guys, both 49 years old, very competent surfers drowned in the surf during Hurricane Florence in Sept of 2006. In fact the waves that day were 6 to 10 foot overhead, and this barrell taken shows that at Satellite Beach were this photo, this one taken just before one of the guys Rob drowned. He was a 15 or 16 year old surfers father.
Watch the Sea Lice stings “sea lice” which are actually the larvae of Thimble jellyfish. And also watch the big big Moon Jellyfish. I walked the beach at 8 this morning, and I saw one that was about a foot in diameter. I believe they are “Moon Jellyfish” They are clear, round, and inch or more thick, with 4 purple membranes if you will in the center. I will try to update later today with a photo of these large Moon Jellyfish.
South of Minuteman, with those winds, should produce slight offshore to sideshore winds.
North of Minuteman, we take a size hit but have the glass.
Saturday, shoulder to head high , 20 mph west winds and epic, anywhere.
Friday is the day. For 36 hours the models have been consistently telling me this. The chart shows 6 AM Friday morning. The Hurricane once it gets a little past us, will give us the morning offshore winds, Irene should be around 250 miles east of us, so we should still have some heavy rain Friday morning, no lightning, just rain and wind.
Friday morning, the swell is looking to be 10.5 feet at 13 seconds at 3 AM, but, it has gotten weird and the models show a really fast drop to 6 feet at 15 seconds at 6 AM. I believe that to be a glitch, the 10.5 feet at 13 seconds translates from probably 12 to 16 foot faces, depending on the break you go to. But, if it has dropped to even 8 feet at 13 or so seconds, then the size should be 10 to 12 foot faces. The winds for 24 hour have been pointing at NNW winds before light and maybe till 8, and NW winds by 8 AM in the 22 to 25 mph range. There will probably be gusts in the 30 or 35 range.
This should be totally epic. Anywhere North of Minuteman Causeway is your best bet if you want offshore winds. Satellite Beach would be sideshore to slightly offshore with NW winds.
Thursday, will be bigger than today in the morning, as the Hurricane rolls in and peaks between midnight Thursday and 6 AM Friday morning. In the morning on Thursday it will be overhead but probably weaker than today, but by 6 or 7 PM, the full size should be here and some pretty huge chop with around 15 mph ENE to NE winds all day, probably some higher gusts in there.
Saturday, I think we’ll have some chest to shoulder high epic leftovers with 20 mph West offshore winds. Surf anywhere, with West winds, down South should be great.
Sunday, who cares 🙂 Well I do, but I’d like to see some more charts by Friday before I make an educated guess. Hah, this stuff is all guesswork after your face turns blue from looking at data 5 times a day, 7 days a week 🙂
Update; 6:30 PM Tuesday night, from the 8:00 Am report this morning.
Now the storm has slowed enough to give us back the 8.5 feet at 12 seconds at daybreak. What’s that mean? Friday morning it ought to give us double overhead waves at the pier and at least in Satellite Beach. Plus, the wind models are showing NW at daybreak instead of N or NNW, and the winds have slowed down to the NW in the 30 mph range with some stronger gusts, but at least they’re not in the 40’s. Even at 9 Am we could still see some 5 to 6 foot overhead sets.
Saturday morning, looks like shoulder to head high with strong but reasonable offshore winds around 20 mph out of the west.
If this model could hold, we would have our huge epic day, and a head high epic day on Saturday.
Also, Irene model projections have shifted slightly. As of 5 PM tonight, instead of a direct path toward Wilmington, NC, it appears to be heading for a brush with Cape Hatteras and then toward New York. The storm Friday morning looks like it will be about 230 miles east of us. BUT, YA NEVER KNOW WHAT CAN CHANGE SO KEEP SOME EXTRA BATTERIES, CAN FOOD, CAT OR DOG FOOD AND SOME CANDLES AND A BATTERY FAN AROUND 🙂
Below, is the forecast I gave at 8 AM this morning.
Irene is a Cat 2, 100 mph winds as of early this morning. Pray for the folks at Wilmington, N.C.
Surf; The storm model has moved up its time frame, so the main power and size of the surf will be while we sleep Thursday nite. But for those that felt it would be too big, now it will be perfect for you.
Friday morning, the winds (this is a weak model on winds, but Wednesday night I will have 62.6 to 80% accurate winds for Friday morning once I can use weather.com models) anyhow as it stands the winds turn NNW by 8 Am ish, are still holding in the 35 to 45 mph range, so there’s no reason for dawn patrol except to beat the crowds 🙂
Size, now I’m calling 4 to 5 foot overhead at daybreak, and by NW wind time, after 9 Am anyhow, I believe at the pier it will still be 3 to 4 foot overhead on the sets.
Remember, TS Hannah, which at daybreak until 10 am had some 10 foot overhead sets, it was about 60 miles or 100 miles offshore. (I sat in Marlins and had breakfast so I could see people dropping in and how many bodies could be stacked on their shoulders to establish wave face size. And it was almost 2 bodies, almost triple overhead on the big sets, but not quite.) But Hannah, had 35 NNW winds until noon at least.
My point, is , don’t think the 35 mph plus winds will make it unsurfable. Just bring your heaviest board, and duck your head until you catch that wave, and pounce on the front of your board, and you’ll have a great sesh.
Down south it should be a foot bigger or so.
The cape ought to be great because of the wind direction, N to NW winds until the size really drops after lunch, and then anywhere will be good, south of Minuteman.
The first picture is stormpulse.com’s 6 Am animation of Irene, and the 2nd picture is the projection of where it should be on Friday at 2 Am. The arrow I placed is where we want the storm to be so the winds are offshore.
As the 3rd picture (swell chart from magicseaweed.com or any other model) might show, is we may have some nice waves in the chest high range on Saturday morning also, with 25 mph plus offshore winds.
We’ll give an update later to see how the cane has slowed or sped up.
Thursday night update from noon forecast (8:45 Pm).The winds are now looking like SSW at daybreak and SW at 9 Am and N at 10 Am, then going onshore. Get out early. The 120 buoy has hit 4 feet at 8 and 9 seconds, if it hits 4.5 to 5 feet and holds at a few hits at 9 seconds, I still believe we will see some chest high sets. Otherwise, maybe just waist, but I’m still optimistic. The models just now changed and are showing Friday morning to be smaller, 1.5 feet at 8 seconds as opposed to 2.5 feet at 8 seconds as it was showing the last couple days for Friday morning. So if the 120 goes up from what I said above, then we’ll be good, otherwise, knee to thigh. Ouch. Ending 8:45 Pm Thursday nite update.
Below is the original report from noon today.
My apologies, I didn’t update Tuesday night, and I will try not to make promises I can’t keep. Ouch!
Okay, on to more ‘impotant’ things. We have a little swell among us. I checked it out from Hightowers, Hangers, O’Club, also the High Tide break in South Cocoa Beach, The Pier and Johnson Ave. It looked ridable everywhere if you had patience to wait for the sets, but the pier did look most consistent when I checked it at 11ish.
I took a few pics at the pier with my phone, yeah, very weak quality, but at least you can see the size on the Southside.
I definitely saw some waist high waves out there among the set waves down south. (waist high for a 6 footer, since a guy I talked to at O’Club told me he had a head high drop on one wave, he emphasized head-high for him:)
It looks like we have a middle of the road between a wind swell and a ground swell, a low period swell, with peaks for take off, as opposed to long lines. I believe Friday morning some time we will have some chest high sets rolling in down south, at least on the bigger sets. The winds ought to be 3 to 5 mph SW offshore at daybreak Friday, and swinging around to the NNW by 10 or 11 Am, to NNE by lunch.
So, Friday waist to chest high with offshore winds (3 to 6 mph SW to NW by 10ish), low tide is around 5:45 Am at the Cape, so anytime after 7 Am will probably be good.
Saturday is looking a little bigger, but onshore in the Am. Weather.com is telling me NNE around 5 to 7 mph, Magicseaweed.coms models are showing S to SE for Saturday morning, but I don’t think their model is updated yet. Friday night we’ll give ya an update on the winds, and I may tonight if it looks like it will change from what I have now.
Sunday, the size drops a little, but as it stands, we may have continued waves for a few days.
Also, we may get a strong swell from the Tropical Disturbance down below Cuba which the models are showing some chest high to head high waves coming, so we’ll keep ya posted on that.
Have a fun surf sesh today, Friday morn, or whenever 🙂
The last day of Emily was Sunday (4 great days, nothing huge but a few head high sets on the drop), and it was a great day in Satellite at RC’s and Hightowers ! I surfed the morning which was stomach high and perfect glass, but it kicked up to chest high as the tide brought in more water.
If you surfed Emily in Cocoa Beach or the Cape, you probably missed the best size because of the angle of the swell. Also, when the winds were mostly SSW, the only place to surf that is South of Minuteman Causeway, and for the size south of the Streets from 2nd light or maybe O Club and South. Great surf, 4 days of it!
This is the official Chasing Monsters trailer video. The link to the 2010 Pico Alto contest is below at the Chasing Monsters website. As shown today on Magicseaweed.comthe Pico Alto in Peru is on. Quote “the world’s top big wave crazies will compete at the Billabong Pico Alto 2011– Copa Burn”. If you want to see last year’s video on the Pico Alto 2010, check out the video at the ChasingMonsters.com website, and as of today it is the 4rth video to scroll down to.
Waves coming, maybe ! Upcoming low pressure system swell headed our way! The models show that it hits Wednesday and keeps rolling for 3 plus days. Don’t know when we will half offshore winds, nor am I 100% sure the swell will hit, but the models show a nice SE swell in the 3 to 4 foot range with a high period of 11 or 12 seconds, so it’s definitely ground swell.
FRIDAY MORNING UPDATE OF YESTERDAYS POST ON TROPICAL DISTURBANCES! We have 2 each 40% Trop. Disturbances and one 20% that have a chance of becoming a Cyclone (Hurricane, yeah I know you know 🙂 , all three came from our normal storm birthing ground, that of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. The image is compliments of Stormpulse.com my favorite hurricane tracker site.
We’ll keep ya posted.
NOTE: JOHNSON AVENUE SURFERS will be moving to a new server in the next month and the URL will be johnsonavenuesurfers.com instead of j-avenue-surfers.com (we were gonna keep it low key, but we wanna give it more exposure and reach)