Our swell chart at 7 Am this Friday morning, compliments of magicseaweed.com
It was great this morning ! The Cape was totally blocked out by this part of the swell.In Satellite it was shoulder high on the drop w chest high shoulders and glassy until around 7:30 Am! Then it dropped off to waist high for an hour and then kicked back up to waist to chest. Still glassy when I left about 8:30 Am.
The next punch of the swell will kick in some throughout the day today (Friday) , in fact it just hit 6 feet at the 120 buoy at 9 Am this morning at 11 seconds which travels about 18 to 19 mph which would take 7 hours approx. to actually hit the beach. Last night at 9 Pm it was 4 feet at 10 seconds. So by 4:00 Pm today, the new surge will hit. The final punch of the swell coming in will be between 10 Pm and 1 Am tonight. It should hit between 7 and 8 feet at the 120 buoy.
I believe in Satellite Beach it will have some 1 foot overhead drops at least with shoulder high maybe head high shoulders down the line. The winds will be SW around 8 mph and by 11 or so turn WSW on into the afternoon. The period will have it’s main punch from dinnertime tonight throughout Saturday morning. It will have way more punch than it did this morning.
Saturday 1 Am morning swell chart size, looks to be around 7 to 8 feet at the 120 mile buoy. Magicseaweed.com
Sunday, it should be waist high plus down there, strong strong offshore winds, and then dropping throughout the day Sunday.
The moving swell chart pics here (frozen at 7 Am for this morning and the 2nd one frozen at 1 Am tonight), show how the swell will still be coming in until around 1 or 2 Am.
I believe the size will be as I said, the winds will be blowing offshore at 8 to 10 mph for 4 or 5 hours but I don’t think it will drop the size any yet since the swell period is still coming in.
Friday's 7 Am swell period chart. Compliments of magicseaweed.com
This is one powerful swell!
It’s going to be building too, all day Friday and even throughout Friday night until just before daybreak Saturday. But that’s not why I’m saying it’s powerful.
The period of the swell is pushing between 11 and 14 seconds between the beach and the 120. Then you might say, oh crap, an 11 or 12 second period swell for us is all closeouts. Well you’d be wrong! Just kidding with the intensity. But you would be wrong 🙂 The quality of the low pressure system is what makes or breaks the swell, and it does help if you surf one of our reef breaks that can hold it better when it gets hollow.
This swell has a fairly uniform set of period bands in it. Not anything as good as the Nov. 14th, 2010 swell (see the 2 links below) with perfect waves, but……….when I looked at the rock breaks in Satellite Beach today, even with the onshore winds in the 10 to 15 mph range, there was some sweet shoulders holding up, so imagine a South wind break with a quality swell. After looking at the Satellite Rock break, then I looked at 2nd light and O’club, and then a block south of 16th street, and the beach breaks were not holding up well, were at least a foot or two smaller.
Saturday morning 7 Am swell period chart for May 14, 2011. Compliments of magicseaweed.com
Alright, I’m long-winded 😉 Friday morning rock breaks south of 2nd light should be solid head high waves, with 5 to 7 mph South winds, but I believe we could see a little SSW or with a gift from above possibly SW until 8 Am or so. These waves have lots of power, and are very hollow.
Saturday morning, I see the swell being a foot bigger at the daybreak, very possibly a foot overhead on the huge sets, with SW winds at daybreak, hollow, plenty of makeable waves and some sweet barrells. If you have a camera, bring it. The drift will probably be gone by Saturday too. The tides are perfect. Friday high tide is around 4:15 Am, and as you know high going low is best for us. So get out by 6:30 or 7 at the latest Friday to catch the slight offshore wind window.
Saturday, High is at 5:20 so anytime after 7:30 should rock! Unless the storm suddenly moves, Saturday should be epic. For 3 or 4 days straight, the models have been showing SW winds for Saturday, so I would bet $ 20 that it will be SW till at least 10, and probably pushing till past 12. Strange thing is, I don’t think it will hit 8 feet at the 120 buoy, I believe more like 7 feet Friday night, and yet we could have 7 foot face waves Saturday morning before the swell starts dropping a little in the afternoon Saturday.
Take a look at the swell period chart (the first image) for 7 Am Friday morning, and notice the fairly uniform period bands, instead of little dots of color all over the place, it is one solid blue with the mega period coming in late Friday nite for Saturday morning. The next pic is Saturday morning which is getting to 75 % of perfect storm. (Nov. 14th was thee perfect storm) The last picture was from today with plenty of power but the wrong winds, and the swell was still coming in even though the period was high.
Thursday morning (today's) swell period chart at 7 Am. Compliments of magicseaweed.com
Today, it was thigh high at the end of Johnson with onshore winds but some fun drops, some shoulders and a little power. I saw Scooter get an awesome and long left, and his wife got are really long, to the beach right.
Saturday morning is almost a perfect storm but not quite. Not like Nov. 14th, 2010. Go back and take a look at the pictures from Satellite Beach on that day, and look at the swell period chart I placed there I think the day before. It was a bigger swell, but they are similar in their perfection.
Okay, have a great Friday sesh, and have really mega-sesh on Saturday, God willing he keeps the conditions on target.
The time table moved up, and it looks like Thursday may be light offshore in the 5 to 8 range out of the west mostly for a few hours in the morning. Right now, I’ll go with 30 % accurate on those winds (for this Monday night) and Tuesday night, when I’ll be closer to okay let’s say 90 % call for Thursday Am wind accuracy 😉 Swell power should be strong enough to be chest high plus down south, waist at the Cape. Later in the day the size ought to kick up a little.
Friday, it gets a little bigger but with onshore winds all day. The swell actually kicks in a second punch and starts pulling in some more size.
Saturday, could easily be head high on the larger sets, with SW winds in the 8 to 12 mph range. It could be totally epic. Pick your favorite break.
Keep in mind that this swell comes from a sharp NE angle, so the further south you go, it ought to be bigger, cleaner and pitching nicer 🙂
My apologies, I’ve been away from this puppy, but….my excuse is, no real swells until this Thursday. I heard today (5/8) had some waist high waves, glassy and lots of fun. I can only track the solid ground swells when I see them. If you watch the Video, be sure to click the 4 arrows just right of the HD to see full screen mode !
Ross at cflsurf.com does a great job for the daily reports and swell tracking, and I just get fanatical when there is a full blown swell (non-wind swell) headed our way, then I’ll do the updates as that approaches. That’s the best I can do for now.
Okay, we have a nice ground swell NE’r coming in that may give us 3 to 6 days of waves. As it stands, the swell starts to roll in some on Wednesday afternoon, with peak swell size Thursday night before dark. It should have some head high waves down southwith onshore winds in the 10 to 15 mph east range Thursday.
Friday morning, looks like we could have offshore winds (as the swell approaches this could move up or slow down) and chest to shoulder high down south, with a drop in size here at the Cape. Saturday, also looks to waist to chest high, offshore winds, and maybe some leftovers on Sunday. Wednesday afternoon, I’ll have a pretty clear picture of what the winds should be Friday morning, so we’ll give ya updates throughout the week 🙂
The video above just came out 2 days ago, and yeah, my fanatical obsession for Big Wave pictures and videos is always looking for the next swell to show. This one is the 2011 Billabong XXL Big Wave Awards, and youza, Shane Dorian set a new record for the largest wave ever paddled into. Shawn Dollar had the biggest last year at Mavericks for an estimated 55 foot face. Well, they didn’t say how big the face was for Shane Dorian this year at Jaw’s, but it’s somewhere over 55 foot face anyhow. He also got the best Monster Tube Ride award also on the same wave. Awesome waves. Danillo got the Best Ride of the Year with the most insane board flipping drop ever. Enjoy the video.
And don’t forget Sion Milosky died this year and his wife and children were there to take the award at the Billabong XXL Award night. We also lost Andy Irons as you all know. The Big Waves Award is a great night and great video to remember these awesome surfers and the many big waves they have surfed and the friendships they made during those epic days we all remember.
My friend from Lakeland High School John Staeger died from hitting a reef with his head while surfing Hawaii back in 1980, so we’ve all known someone that doesn’t get to paddle out again.
Thanks for your patience, since its been 9 days since I dropped an entry here. I’ll try not to wait so long 🙂
Thursday morning (4/28) the waves were a lot of fun, moderate south winds (10 to 12 mph) at our break a 1/2 mile south of 2nd light. Shoulder high and occasionally larger drops, with chest high shoulders, rights and lefts working, but most were only about 50 yard rides on a long board. Plenty of chances to get pitched 🙂 But they had some great punch to them with some great fast walls to work until they closed out. 3 of us out, around 7:30 till 10, All to our selves. Great session.
Friday morning at Hightowers, it was thigh high perfect glass in texture but close-outs after 50 yards or so. 20 minutes after I got out, the storm from east and north hit and totally blew out the waves, oh well 😉
We have additional wind swell coming in Saturday thru Monday am in the chest to shoulder high range down south and a little smaller at the Cape, and it appears to hang around a day or two after that. Don’t expect any glass for the next 5 days, but there should be plenty of waves to paddle into anyhow. Hey, we usually start the flat season now so get excited that we have waves.
When we see a window of offshore winds we’ll let ya know.
Sorry, no pics for now 😦
Oh, and sorry, the Shuttle Launch got scrubbed and is now on tentative for Sunday 5/1 some time.
Monday night at Hangers, chest to shoulder high with head high drops, paddled out at 5:15, caught one shoulder to head high drop, (about 150 yard paddle out), and that puppy took me all the way to the beach and I came in. Which all sessions were like that. I went home after that. Yeah, it was 15 plus mph se winds but the shoulders were holding up for lefts and rights. Great sesh.
Thursday morning ought to be waist to chest high down south, looks like the winds changed to south (originally weather.com showed ssw for the first 3 hours of daybreak) at 10 to 14 mph until 10ish. The breaks from O’ Club south have 6 degrees or more offshore winds when out of the south.
If you go down to Spanish House or Sebastian, the angle of direct south winds provides 26 degree offshore, and Playalinda would be 32 degrees offshore with south winds but, oops…………….Playalinda closed with the hopeful shuttle launch.
Okay, the swell may drop a little but not much for Friday morning, and the winds should be WNW at daybreak, and turning NNW until 10 am, and then by 11 am or later it turns North and then NE.
Get out by 7:30 or 8 on Thursday right at mid-tide, with high (5 am) going low, which is best for us.
Friday Am, get out by 8 also, otherwise you lose the offshore glass.
Monday 7 Am moving period chart screenshot showing the most consistent shape of the swell so far. Compliments of Magicseaweed.com data sources.
The 120 buoy has climbed from 6 feet at 10 seconds to 7.5 feet at 10 seconds at 5:50 PM today and I believe it will still hit around 8.5 feet some time after midnite. !
The waves in the morning will be in the head high range sometime tomorrow down south, maybe a foot overhead.The winds are light 7 mph east to se.It may even have an offshore breeze before daybreak from the land cooling off quicker than the ocean. I’ll give it a 30% chance of that. It’s not like someones gonna hold me accountable !
Size should be at least 6 inches bigger than this morning anyhow.
The two screenshots of the seaboard period chart are to show you how Sunday at 7am the water mass area of the swell had a more eratic wind pattern than the Monday morn 7 am chart shows. It has some nice uniform bands of period color change.
My point, I believe we may some more power, better pseudo-lines and longer workable walls Monday, even with the slight onshore winds than we had on Sunday (today). It will probably be big and clean like Thursday morning but with a couple more feet in size than Thursday.
Sunday morning 7 Am moving swell period chart. Magicseaweed.com data source.
The first size of the swell was Thursday, and We were fortunate enough to catch the dawn patrol session (close to dawn:) , South of 2nd light. It was wait wait wait, until 7:40 ish, and then some chest high glass or semi-glass with plenty of power.
Winds were offshore for awhile, lefts and rights were working. Four of us in the water only, what a great session!
For Sunday; the 120 buoy has been pushing 5.5 to 6.5 feet at around 10 seconds now for about 24 hours, ESE winds bringing it in, so I believe we’ll seem some shoulder high waves down south, and some chest high sets at the Pier and Shephard Park.
If you can catch it, 1 hour after full high tide, and any time for 3 or 4 hours after that, even with the on shore winds at 10 to 15 mph plus, you’ll catch some long workable left or right shoulders.
We should have waves for the next few days, no offshore winds in sight, but like I said, catching it high going low, will give you an easy paddle out, and clean shoulders with totally workable walls.
Enjoy the last day of the Easter Surf Fest, lots of good food, great scenery, bonding and all that stuff.
I hope you can catch an Easter Sunrise Service, our Pastor Greg Le Sieur from Christ Lutheran Church will be at the Shephard Park Sunrise Service starting around 6:45 Am.
Raimana Van Bastolaer catches the wave of the day at Teahupoo, he caught the best barrell in 2010 for the XXL awards for the monster barrell contest.
Thursday morning (tommorrow) looks like it should be chest high down south. The swell strengthens for a day, not a big jump in size, but more in power, it just hit 4 feet at 10 seconds at the 120 buoy. The most significant thing, is the winds changed from a south southeast direction to total east, so it will bring in the swell more.
Winds ought to be in the 4 to 6 mph se maybe sse direction and stay light until lunchtime, where they should kick up an increase throughout the day.
The perfect mid-tide time with the low winds is 8 am, low is around 5 am, so getting out at 7 thru 10 should give the cleanest kick for the day.
The photo to the left is Raimana Van Bastolaer who is from Tahiti, one of the locals for Teahupoo, and hey what a surprise, he caught the biggest barrel best wave of the day. He also won the monster barrel Billabong XXL awards for 2010. Thanks to Magicseaweed.com for providing the awesome swell photo gallery of Teahupoo. See the rest here.
The Easter surf fest should have plenty of head high waves or at least plenty of 5 to 6 foot faces thru the weekend, so get it while you can. Like Ross at cflsurf.com says, it may be the last swell before the PHLAT season, unless we have a replay of last summer which was a freak and a gift from God. But we’ll see.
Teahupoo finally had a huge day after a year has passed. Magicseaweed.com has this awesome gallery of some locals, and some big wave names that caught this swell in the last few days. Mark Healey on this bomb.
An easterly swell east/southeast swell is starting to hit our beaches now. Looks like it hit the minimum to classify as a ground swell at the 120 buoy at 1 Am this morning. (Tuesday morning )
It hit 3.5 @ 11 secs. , I just looked at the surf at the end of Johnson, at 7 Am and in another hour and a half, the full first part of this 6 to 8 day swell should be here. It looked thigh high on the sets and even with the light onshores, the left shoulders were holding up a little. The waves don’t hit there size until Thursday and will continue to build a little each day from Thursday morning till at least Saturday or Sunday, maybe even Monday 🙂
Thursday morning should be the first big day of the swell, with light 5 to 7 mph SSE winds, with 3.5 to 4.0 feet at 10 seconds hitting the beach. Satellite Beach and Patrick at mid-tide should provide some solid chest high waves.
And, looks like we’ll have waves all thru the Easter Surf Fest/contest, with maybe some showers on Sunday, but not too much. As it stands right now, I don’t see a day where the winds will turn offshore yet, but as the swell moves in we’ll let ya know.
Anyhow, we’ll keep ya posted with the winds and as the second and third stages of the swell come in.
Sorry no pics here. Okay, I snagged one tonight, check out the awesome gallery that was just posted to Magicseaweed.com today here. In a hurry this morning.
Johnson Avenue Surfers 