Tuesday as of 5 AM Katia, and its position Wednesday at 2 PM, Cat 3, then maybe Cat 4 today and back to 3 or 2.
UPDATE FOR TUESDAY MORNING. Katia is a Category 3 Hurricane with 125 mph winds. It is supposed to hit Category 4 this afternoon, and fortunately still keep heading North. The reason we have probably 3 days of great waves and the 2 or 3 other days of waves, is not only the strength, but because it’s traveling slow at 10 mph NW, and is staying about 700 miles east of us and throwing in a long fetch for the swell. It’s staying far from us, and pretty far west of Bermuda to avoid major damage, and then headed toward the North Atlantic so that England and France can get some fun out of this. What a nice Hurricane! Back to last nights post and what’s what for Tuesday thru Friday below.
Tuesday morning,chest high at the Cape, head high plus down south. SSW winds starting around 10 mph at daybreak and increasing to probably 20 mph. Best place for those direction winds; Down south , like 8th street south to Satellite Beach. Up North, SSW is sideshore to onshore. Could be fun but find the right break to handle the angle of the winds. Don’t wear yourself out on it though, Wednesday and Thursday are the days 🙂
Wednesday,head high plus, probably just overhead at the Cape.And at Satellite Beach and maybe 2nd light, should be 3 to 4 foot overhead at the right breaks, still overhead about everywhere. Light SW winds in the 4 to 6 mph range, perfect down south.At the Pier and the Port, the wind angle is offshore, but barely, since NW winds are perfect for us, and SW is offshore to sideshore. Since they are light, it should be good everywhere. Actually, it should be epic down south and just, very good up North.(semantic games 😉
Thursday,still overhead plus down south, and head high at the Cape, probably overhead at the pier. Its too early to give accurate winds, but my guess is West winds, maybe WSW, still light under 10 mph. We’ll give ya an update Tuesday night for Thursday AM winds.
Friday, waist to chest high and dropping pretty fast, west winds to probably NW is my guess.
Have a great Wednesday, and even Tuesday should have some fun even with the high winds.
Katia will have some waves for us in the morning. They kind of sent something our way a few hours ago, but the real strength won’t start till the morning. (Monday morning) Sea Lice are pretty bad again, so get out and buy and try SeaSafe Jellyfish and Sea Lice repellent. Supposedly it works for before the fact, not after. See photo of Lice below.
Sea Lice photo, blown up 1000 percent, I believe
Monday should have some chest high waves for us and growing thru the day. The angle of the swell, it’s hard to tell how it will come in for the Cape until another day or so, but I think we’ll see chest high down south for sure, and by the end of the day, chest at the Cape and bigger down south. South winds from 8 to 15 mph with maybe stronger gusts.
Tuesday, a little bigger, shoulder high and growing, South winds also, but maybe a few hours of SSW winds. Need I say, South winds mean first Playalinda (32 degrees offshore) , 2nd Spanish House/Sebastian Inlet (26 degrees offshore). Definitely, go south of Minuteman Causeway for your best chase for semi-glass or minimal chop.
Wednesday, we should have some overhead waves, probably head high to slight overhead at the Cape, and a couple feet overhead down south. SW winds for a few hours in the morning, so get out early. (though the winds call is iffy, until I check them out Monday night or Tuesday morning for a 75 to 80 % accuracy call for Wednesday morning.
Thursday chest high to overhead as the models look with possible NW winds the first few hours in the morning.
Friday, strangely enough the size looks to increase a foot over Thursday with WNW winds possible in the morning.
Beyond Friday is getting real iffy to try and call. It is not confirmed that that is a true sea lice photo above, perhaps someone can let me know.
Monday is the last day of the NKF 26th Annual Surf Festival, so get down there and check it out, with the additional thrust in waves from Katia.
The photo above is my buddy from Newport Beach Rob’s friend Clay surfing a classic day at Punta Mango , El Salvador a couple years ago.
Katia getting close enough to start “guessing” the big and glassy days 🙂 Well, almost…
Our local windswell that will be coming in late Saturday afternoon will start bringing surfable waves for today and Sunday. Onshore, thigh to waist high plus stuff with onshore winds depending on the Cape or toward Patrick and Satellite Beach.
Monday and Tuesday, for 2 days running now show South winds as the Cane starts sending us chest high waves Monday on up to overhead waves by Tuesday, so this is Playalinda and Spanish House type wind.Offshore in both places. If you don’t want to drive, then surf anywhere south of 6th Street South and at least it will be 3 to 6 degrees offshore with direct South winds.RC’s and Hightowers it would be around 10 degrees offshore, and by the way, right now its only showing around 10 to 12 mph South winds so it could be really fun Monday and Tuesday.
Saturday 6 AM swell model update from Magicseaweed.com
WINDS ARE ALWAYS IFFY, AND THE BEST I CAN CALL ARE WINDS 36 TO 48 HOURS OUT ONLY. KEEP THAT IN MIND FOR TUESDAY ON, REGARDING THIS REPORT UPDATE !.
Wednesday morning, right now appears to be the biggest day, models of wind are too far out, but it looks to be SW winds and overhead waves, so down South could be epic. If you surf up North, with SSW to SW, you’ll be getting slight onshore to sideshore winds with a very slight offshore, but it wouldn’t be glassy.
Thursday morning, SSW to SW in the morning, head high, glassy down South and by late late afternoon, the winds start turning West so up North should be great by then.
Friday morning looks to be chest to head high an glassy everywhere.
The swell chart here even though it was placed in the style that it is on my favorite data house Magicseaweed.com, these are the same numbers that we see on Surfline, SurfGuru, Wavecaster, etc. They all get their data from NWW3 and GFS. But, MSW has their own programmers that bring the data with shoreline conditions, other storms affecting the storm we are tracking, and they draw interpolations from this with their own created models. To me they are hands down the best source of raw data interpolated. (my plug for MSW 🙂 But all the others still do a great job, and the most reliable interpretation of this stuff to give us user friendly reports over the years in my opinion is brother Ross at CFLsurf.com .
Anyhow, Katia swell models have dropped but it now looks like overhead surf that everyone can paddle out and have a great session/s.
The Stormpulse.com image here shows that Katia should be around 700 miles due east of us, which is less powerful than Bill, less than Earl, but still on track to give us multiple days of great surf.
Full size images below if you want to click on them and see full screen.
Maybe a 2nd chance at a barrel? Photo by Mike Melito, an old surf buddy. Hurricane Irene, the 2nd day. Pic 1
FRIDAY NITE UPDATE (from this original Thursday afternoon surf report book 😉 Wind swell coming in late Saturday with waist high size and onshore winds; nothing exciting but something ridable somewhere 🙂
Sunday, the same wind swell, small, persists until late afternoon, when the first dribble of Cane Katia starts sending in waves. Playalinda and Spanish House could have some nice chest high size and slight offshore winds (SSE to SE; S winds are 32 degrees offshore at Playalinda and 26 degrees at Spanish House). 2nd light to RC’s will have sideshore SSE to SE winds.
Monday and Tuesday will be growing from chest to overhead by Tuesday , right now looking onshore winds in the 15 to 20 range.
Wednesday and Thursday will be pushing the 2 to 4 foot plus overhead range, also with onshore winds, but………….Thursday and or Friday (or both days), could be the big and offshore wind days. So we will keep you updated on that mostly, once Tuesday and Wednesday night roll around when I can get more accurate wind data.
Oh, Katia is still a Cat 1 Hurricane, but it still shows to be a Cat 3 by Wednesday, and should be about 850 East of Daytona at that point, so if the wind sheer models hold, it should start aiming some Northward, and if the wind sheer models don’t hold, then start packing…………just kidding, but listen close to the weather.
Here endeth the Friday , Sept. 2nd update for surf coming our way. Below is my post from Thursday afternoon…
I just don’t know if the title of this post is quite long enough…
There’s a lot going on 😉
Katia went Hurricane Category 1 hurricane late last night or this morning. Should be a Cat 3 by Monday, and by Tuesday it will only be 1100 miles from us, though the general consensus is that an upper wind sheer with keep it diverted off our part of the coastline anyhow. As the general consensus goes. Still, like I mentioned the other day, consider doing your Boy Scout stuff like water, canned goods, extra cat and dog food, batteries, fans and if you really wanna get anal, some water purification tablets…okay, I’m slipping into Alarmist syndrome here, my bad 🙂
Before we get into Katia and forecasts, we have some Hurricane Irene pics here from Saturday (the day after the big day 🙂 down around Slater Lane, mid-morning chest high waves, pretty much perfection.
It did turn into some coverage. Mike Melito photographer. Hurricane Irene, glassy day two. Saturday
The photos were taken by a surf buddy and high school friend Mike Melito. (He also did my Hurricane Earl and Danielle pics last year)
It was head high down by Satellite Beach, but I couldn’t make it down there. In between in North Cocoa Beach (as shown in these pics it was still pretty sweet) But I did surf some incredibly fun waist to stomach high waves at Johnson Ave, so needless to say, I was happy.
Also, Ross at CFLsurf.com has an incredible array of photos from Irene at his site (Picasa Web gallery) , check him out too.
Nice waist to chest high left.
The 1st Friday of the month Friday Fest of Cape Canaveral is September 2nd, this Friday. The band Vilifi, whom I heard before is awesome, 3 piece band with incredible guitar player, drummer and bass. (Obviously, those would be the 3 instruments for a 3 piece band, but my point is, each musician is incredible 🙂 If the link takes long to load, then just click on Cape Canaverals city website, and go to the 7th menu link for Friday Fest.
Hard to tell if it would be a good longboard day 😉 Photos by Mike Melito.
It still appears that Katia will start throwing us some waves Sunday night after dark, with some waist to chest high waves building Monday, onshore winds. The swell may provide some huge stuff, may last for 3 to 5 days.
The models are showing some possible offshore winds on Tuesday, which I would imagine that has to do with the storm in the Gulf which may become a cane also, heading toward Houston, cause it’s too early for Katia to be going offshore.
In Summary, aside from a little wind swell we may have in the next couple days, Monday starts Katia, and Tuesday it should be about 1100 miles offshore. If it goes North with at least 600 miles off the coast we could have some killer waves by Wednesday or Thursday.
Waitin on a duck diver to get in a good place 🙂 Hurricane Irene , the day after photos by Mike Melito
We’ll keep ya posted. If you don’t have a long leash for your cat or dog, get one, and a cage, just in case. (what’s this guy so obsessed about pets for ?)
Hurricane Irene, Brevard County, photographer at Gulfster.com
Tropical Storm Katia on the way…….But I had to show a few more of the awesome Friday, Hurricane Irene pictures from Gulfster.com . Many of the pictures on their site are Satellite Beach, The Pier, and another spot I believe.
Tropical Storm Katia appears to be sending us waves on late Sunday or Monday, as it stands now, onshore winds bringing the storm in, in the 3 to 4 foot range. By Sunday, it looks to be about 1500 miles from us, as a Cat 2 or 3 Hurricane.
Tropical Storm Katia, headed straight our way, 60 mph winds, 20 mph. Possible hurricane by Wednesday some time. Sunday could place it about 1500 miles WSW of us. Compliments of Stormpulse.com
With the sole intention of being an alarmist, keep in your mind, preparation for a direct hit between us and Jacksonville. No one is saying this, just my thoughts. Consider looking at your Boy Scout list of Hurricane preparation items. Okay, here endeth the alarmist 😉 …Not! Katrina was 6 years ago in 2005. It’s like they’re related 🙂
Image 2 here of Hurricane Irene, Brevard County, photographer at Gulfster.com
We should have some more news on this puppy (Katia) by Wednesday night, or Thursday.
I’m waiting on some pics for Saturday, in the chest high range from Irene, by Slater Lane.
Oh, in case you didn’t hear it or see it in today’s Florida Today. Kelly Slater won the Tahiti Pro in huge waves meeting in the finals against Owen Wright.
Check out the killer slideshow at Magicseaweed.com . He was ranked 6th, after he skipped the tour in J-Bay (looked like 6 foot waves for that contest), and he caught the once in a lifetime swell in Fiji. 30 to 40 foot , tow in and paddle in. The same storm that they called the 50 year storm hitting Tasmania first, then Australia (thus the 50 year storm name) and on to Fiji and other places. That big wave surf, very similar to Teahupoo except longer rides than Teahupoo.
Don’t forget about the26th Annual NKF Surf Festival – Labor Day Weekend – Cocoa Beach – September 1-5, 2011. Read more about the Surf Festival here.
Later,
oldwaverider
Check out the board length to face size (yeah a little angled 🙂 in Image 3 here of Hurricane Irene, Brevard County, photographer at Gulfster.com Image 4, Hurricane Irene, Brevard County, photographer at Gulfster.comImage 5, Hurricane Irene, Brevard County, photographer at Gulfster.comImage 6, Hurricane Irene, Brevard County, photographer at Gulfster.comImage 7, Hurricane Irene, Brevard County, photographer at Gulfster.com
Sunday surf, nothing. There may be an hour or two of longboard ridable waves, but anything called a swell has left the 20 and 120 mile buoy already.
But we did have some really fun stuff. I will have a few pictures from Saturday mid-morning surf from Slater Lane break. Some waist and some chest high waves, perfect glass kinda stuff.
Also, I’ll be posting some of the big waves photos here in a day or so.
I will be a happy individual when I get my hands on an SLR, but for now, I am content with accumulating photos from friends and associates 🙂
I don’t see anything down the pipe; that TD 10 doesn’t seem to be strenghtening now, and a Disturbance below Cape Verde off of Africa, is an area of interest, and the cool thing is, it’s getting close, its only 3970 miles from Daytona ;(
Rest up, enjoy the talk about the great surf that you had, the nut that cut you off, the fact that you had the b_ _ _s to paddle into the big (for Florida) , waves that we had.
Today and last night, How the Waves were…And, the 4 picture sequence (not 5) I have here is from the awesome Photographers of Gulfster.com .
An early Satellite Beach overhead wave ;), Image 1 of 5 in a very large sequence set of photos. I have 4 more of this sequence shot by the awesome photographers of Gulfster.com
Saturday morning update. (This original post done Friday nite) The buoys just cleared our really fast, the 20 mile just dropped from 11 feet to 8, so we may only see waist high at the Cape and Chest high down south. I’ll do a visual by 6:30 AM. Maybe it held a little more, we’ll see. Below is Friday nites post…
The Jetty , Harbor break at 7 Pm to 8 Pm Thursday night when I watched it with 2 guys out, 12 to 15 foot faces, NNW winds almost perfect glass, but not quite, with nothing smaller on the set waves. But there was definitely a few larger rogue waves. I watched a number of 15 foot faces based on seeing the rider, out 400 yards, but quite visible.
Image 2 of a many image sequence, but just 5 here for now, from I believe Satellite Beach. By Gulfster.com
Those that were not there, and those not obsessed about watching the size of waves, might say otherwise. However myself another surfer, and one of the two guys that came in confirmed the size 🙂
Image 3 of a sequence. Gulfster.com photographer
Today, I surfed by the Jetty. Solid 8 to 10 foot faces 7 to 8:30 Am with some bigger rogue sets. Perfect glass with NW winds. Yesterdays post covered what we should hope to see. When the size dropped and I was tired, we went to Officers Club and it was solid 10 to 12 foot faces (double overhead on the sets) with maybe an larger set everyone once in a while. The winds were NW to WNW, and were totally blinding. At the Jetty, no issues with spray in the eyes.
Saturday, we should see chest high sets in the Cape, and shoulder high down by Satellite. West winds in the 12 to 18 mph range. Should be really fun and probably epic.
Sunday, I don’t see much, but perhaps some waist high waves will linger.
Image 4 of a 4 image sequence. Gulfster.com photographer
We have a TD 10 headed our way from Africa that may already be showing up on the swell models.
Quick Update at 8:45 PM Thursday night; Most will assume that I am on, or was on some form of a hallucinagenic, and I’m okay with that 🙂 , however, I just got to watch 45 minutes of surf shortly before dark, and I saw one individual catch 4 rides, the 1stwitch was 6 solid feet over his head, when he made his bottom turn, and he still had 2 or 3 further to the bottom, not of the typical slopey Florida wave. The 2nd epic wave out of his 4 that we watched, which was also glassy, was he dropped in, on the same but maybe an inch taller wave 😉 and after a rentry, slipped right into a barrel, standup, but only have of the wave covered him to the waist, but he did disappear, pulled out, and preceded to get 3 or 4 rentry that required at least 30 yards coverage for each top to bottom, it was like in slow motion. We estimated that it was about 200 yards, (2 football fields, based on the fact that it was around 10 seconds ride, but also, since it was about 400 yards out paddle to get out, and he made it most of the way in except for the inside section…which by the way, his wave kept on going when he kicked out. It was really breathtaking for Florida ( I could care less how corney it sounds, but I love guessing numbers, stats, financial data and trends, finding changes in treands, plus distance when I run 3 to 4 times a week, so am I anal , you make the call, and this site to see was awesome , especially for Northern Brevard County. The original post from today continues below starting with the Teahupoo video which is breathtaking again…a little poetic sounding, but my bad 😉 Last comment, I believe my numbers for 6:30 – 7 AM session made in this afternoons post earlier today at 1 PM, is still accurate, so take it or leave it 🙂
Friday morning surf report in a minute…I had to drop this video of Teahupoo (cho-pooh), from The Billabong Pro in Tahiti. It is absolutely incredible taken from a helicopter.
Friday morning, On the high side, with the models for Satellite Beach at daybreak, 10.5 feet at 13 seconds, in Satellite Beach we could see 15 foot plus faces. The winds are still looking 25 to 30 mph NW until noon and then WNW. There will be gusts over 35 mph, but that’s still less than TD Hanna in “09”. But by then the size has dropped 4 feet in face size.
Friday morning, Our models show 6 feet at 15 seconds climbing to 8 feet at 11 seconds at 9 AM At the Cape and Cocoa Beach, the Cape should see 10 to 12 foot faces with a rogue set every now and then, glassy, lots of spray with 25 to 30 mph NW winds, and gusts a little higher. The lefts should be incredible. High tide is 5:45, which is the best condition we could ask for, high going low.The size will probably kick up from daybreak to 9 AM a couple feet, and then start dropping fast by noon, but not to fast 🙂 By noon, we’ll probably have 8 to 10 foot faces and then lose a foot every couple hours.
The rain should be pretty significant in the morning so be ready for that, and also, for you old guy surfers, 2 guys, both 49 years old, very competent surfers drowned in the surf during Hurricane Florence in Sept of 2006. In fact the waves that day were 6 to 10 foot overhead, and this barrell taken shows that at Satellite Beach were this photo, this one taken just before one of the guys Rob drowned. He was a 15 or 16 year old surfers father.
Watch the Sea Lice stings “sea lice” which are actually the larvae of Thimble jellyfish. And also watch the big big Moon Jellyfish. I walked the beach at 8 this morning, and I saw one that was about a foot in diameter. I believe they are “Moon Jellyfish” They are clear, round, and inch or more thick, with 4 purple membranes if you will in the center. I will try to update later today with a photo of these large Moon Jellyfish.
South of Minuteman, with those winds, should produce slight offshore to sideshore winds.
North of Minuteman, we take a size hit but have the glass.
Saturday, shoulder to head high , 20 mph west winds and epic, anywhere.
The model for 6 AM Friday morning looks to be a glitch, and my guess is it will be around 8.5 feet at 13 or 14 seconds, but we'll see. The storm picked up some speed and now will share it size while its dark. Compliments of magicseaweed.com
Friday is the day. For 36 hours the models have been consistently telling me this. The chart shows 6 AM Friday morning. The Hurricane once it gets a little past us, will give us the morning offshore winds, Irene should be around 250 miles east of us, so we should still have some heavy rain Friday morning, no lightning, just rain and wind.
Friday morning, the swell is looking to be 10.5 feet at 13 seconds at 3 AM, but, it has gotten weird and the models show a really fast drop to 6 feet at 15 seconds at 6 AM. I believe that to be a glitch, the 10.5 feet at 13 seconds translates from probably 12 to 16 foot faces, depending on the break you go to. But, if it has dropped to even 8 feet at 13 or so seconds, then the size should be 10 to 12 foot faces. The winds for 24 hour have been pointing at NNW winds before light and maybe till 8, and NW winds by 8 AM in the 22 to 25 mph range. There will probably be gusts in the 30 or 35 range.
This should be totally epic. Anywhere North of Minuteman Causeway is your best bet if you want offshore winds. Satellite Beach would be sideshore to slightly offshore with NW winds.
Thursday, will be bigger than today in the morning, as the Hurricane rolls in and peaks between midnight Thursday and 6 AM Friday morning. In the morning on Thursday it will be overhead but probably weaker than today, but by 6 or 7 PM, the full size should be here and some pretty huge chop with around 15 mph ENE to NE winds all day, probably some higher gusts in there.
Saturday, I think we’ll have some chest to shoulder high epic leftovers with 20 mph West offshore winds. Surf anywhere, with West winds, down South should be great.
Sunday, who cares 🙂 Well I do, but I’d like to see some more charts by Friday before I make an educated guess. Hah, this stuff is all guesswork after your face turns blue from looking at data 5 times a day, 7 days a week 🙂
Hurricane Irene position as of 6 Am Tuesday morning, compliments of stormpulse.com, 100 mph winds, and on its way to a category 4 hurricane.
Update; 6:30 PM Tuesday night, from the 8:00 Am report this morning.
Now the storm has slowed enough to give us back the 8.5 feet at 12 seconds at daybreak. What’s that mean? Friday morning it ought to give us double overhead waves at the pier and at least in Satellite Beach. Plus, the wind models are showing NW at daybreak instead of N or NNW, and the winds have slowed down to the NW in the 30 mph range with some stronger gusts, but at least they’re not in the 40’s. Even at 9 Am we could still see some 5 to 6 foot overhead sets.
Saturday morning, looks like shoulder to head high with strong but reasonable offshore winds around 20 mph out of the west.
If this model could hold, we would have our huge epic day, and a head high epic day on Saturday.
Also, Irene model projections have shifted slightly. As of 5 PM tonight, instead of a direct path toward Wilmington, NC, it appears to be heading for a brush with Cape Hatteras and then toward New York. The storm Friday morning looks like it will be about 230 miles east of us. BUT, YA NEVER KNOW WHAT CAN CHANGE SO KEEP SOME EXTRA BATTERIES, CAN FOOD, CAT OR DOG FOOD AND SOME CANDLES AND A BATTERY FAN AROUND 🙂
Below, is the forecast I gave at 8 AM this morning.
Irene is a Cat 2, 100 mph winds as of early this morning. Pray for the folks at Wilmington, N.C.
Surf; The storm model has moved up its time frame, so the main power and size of the surf will be while we sleep Thursday nite. But for those that felt it would be too big, now it will be perfect for you.
Friday morning, the winds (this is a weak model on winds, but Wednesday night I will have 62.6 to 80% accurate winds for Friday morning once I can use weather.com models) anyhow as it stands the winds turn NNW by 8 Am ish, are still holding in the 35 to 45 mph range, so there’s no reason for dawn patrol except to beat the crowds 🙂
The models show that at 2 Am Friday morning, where Irene should be, and the arrow I placed is to show where we want the Hurricane to be after the Friday 2 Am model, so that it provides offshore winds. Compliments of stormpulse.com
Size, now I’m calling 4 to 5 foot overhead at daybreak, and by NW wind time, after 9 Am anyhow, I believe at the pier it will still be 3 to 4 foot overhead on the sets.
Remember, TS Hannah, which at daybreak until 10 am had some 10 foot overhead sets, it was about 60 miles or 100 miles offshore. (I sat in Marlins and had breakfast so I could see people dropping in and how many bodies could be stacked on their shoulders to establish wave face size. And it was almost 2 bodies, almost triple overhead on the big sets, but not quite.) But Hannah, had 35 NNW winds until noon at least.
My point, is , don’t think the 35 mph plus winds will make it unsurfable. Just bring your heaviest board, and duck your head until you catch that wave, and pounce on the front of your board, and you’ll have a great sesh.
Down south it should be a foot bigger or so.
The swell bar chart model shows that it peaks from midnight to 3 Am Thursday night or early Friday morning, but we still should expect a 6 to 7.5 foot swell (not wave size) by the time the winds turn offshore for us here at the cape. Magicseaweed.com model provided. As you can see, we should have some chest high waves even on Saturday.
The cape ought to be great because of the wind direction, N to NW winds until the size really drops after lunch, and then anywhere will be good, south of Minuteman.
The first picture is stormpulse.com’s 6 Am animation of Irene, and the 2nd picture is the projection of where it should be on Friday at 2 Am. The arrow I placed is where we want the storm to be so the winds are offshore.
As the 3rd picture (swell chart from magicseaweed.com or any other model) might show, is we may have some nice waves in the chest high range on Saturday morning also, with 25 mph plus offshore winds.
We’ll give an update later to see how the cane has slowed or sped up.
Johnson Avenue Surfers 