The model for 6 AM Friday morning looks to be a glitch, and my guess is it will be around 8.5 feet at 13 or 14 seconds, but we'll see. The storm picked up some speed and now will share it size while its dark. Compliments of magicseaweed.com
Friday is the day. For 36 hours the models have been consistently telling me this. The chart shows 6 AM Friday morning. The Hurricane once it gets a little past us, will give us the morning offshore winds, Irene should be around 250 miles east of us, so we should still have some heavy rain Friday morning, no lightning, just rain and wind.
Friday morning, the swell is looking to be 10.5 feet at 13 seconds at 3 AM, but, it has gotten weird and the models show a really fast drop to 6 feet at 15 seconds at 6 AM. I believe that to be a glitch, the 10.5 feet at 13 seconds translates from probably 12 to 16 foot faces, depending on the break you go to. But, if it has dropped to even 8 feet at 13 or so seconds, then the size should be 10 to 12 foot faces. The winds for 24 hour have been pointing at NNW winds before light and maybe till 8, and NW winds by 8 AM in the 22 to 25 mph range. There will probably be gusts in the 30 or 35 range.
This should be totally epic. Anywhere North of Minuteman Causeway is your best bet if you want offshore winds. Satellite Beach would be sideshore to slightly offshore with NW winds.
Thursday, will be bigger than today in the morning, as the Hurricane rolls in and peaks between midnight Thursday and 6 AM Friday morning. In the morning on Thursday it will be overhead but probably weaker than today, but by 6 or 7 PM, the full size should be here and some pretty huge chop with around 15 mph ENE to NE winds all day, probably some higher gusts in there.
Saturday, I think we’ll have some chest to shoulder high epic leftovers with 20 mph West offshore winds. Surf anywhere, with West winds, down South should be great.
Sunday, who cares 🙂 Well I do, but I’d like to see some more charts by Friday before I make an educated guess. Hah, this stuff is all guesswork after your face turns blue from looking at data 5 times a day, 7 days a week 🙂
Hurricane Irene position as of 6 Am Tuesday morning, compliments of stormpulse.com, 100 mph winds, and on its way to a category 4 hurricane.
Update; 6:30 PM Tuesday night, from the 8:00 Am report this morning.
Now the storm has slowed enough to give us back the 8.5 feet at 12 seconds at daybreak. What’s that mean? Friday morning it ought to give us double overhead waves at the pier and at least in Satellite Beach. Plus, the wind models are showing NW at daybreak instead of N or NNW, and the winds have slowed down to the NW in the 30 mph range with some stronger gusts, but at least they’re not in the 40’s. Even at 9 Am we could still see some 5 to 6 foot overhead sets.
Saturday morning, looks like shoulder to head high with strong but reasonable offshore winds around 20 mph out of the west.
If this model could hold, we would have our huge epic day, and a head high epic day on Saturday.
Also, Irene model projections have shifted slightly. As of 5 PM tonight, instead of a direct path toward Wilmington, NC, it appears to be heading for a brush with Cape Hatteras and then toward New York. The storm Friday morning looks like it will be about 230 miles east of us. BUT, YA NEVER KNOW WHAT CAN CHANGE SO KEEP SOME EXTRA BATTERIES, CAN FOOD, CAT OR DOG FOOD AND SOME CANDLES AND A BATTERY FAN AROUND 🙂
Below, is the forecast I gave at 8 AM this morning.
Irene is a Cat 2, 100 mph winds as of early this morning. Pray for the folks at Wilmington, N.C.
Surf; The storm model has moved up its time frame, so the main power and size of the surf will be while we sleep Thursday nite. But for those that felt it would be too big, now it will be perfect for you.
Friday morning, the winds (this is a weak model on winds, but Wednesday night I will have 62.6 to 80% accurate winds for Friday morning once I can use weather.com models) anyhow as it stands the winds turn NNW by 8 Am ish, are still holding in the 35 to 45 mph range, so there’s no reason for dawn patrol except to beat the crowds 🙂
The models show that at 2 Am Friday morning, where Irene should be, and the arrow I placed is to show where we want the Hurricane to be after the Friday 2 Am model, so that it provides offshore winds. Compliments of stormpulse.com
Size, now I’m calling 4 to 5 foot overhead at daybreak, and by NW wind time, after 9 Am anyhow, I believe at the pier it will still be 3 to 4 foot overhead on the sets.
Remember, TS Hannah, which at daybreak until 10 am had some 10 foot overhead sets, it was about 60 miles or 100 miles offshore. (I sat in Marlins and had breakfast so I could see people dropping in and how many bodies could be stacked on their shoulders to establish wave face size. And it was almost 2 bodies, almost triple overhead on the big sets, but not quite.) But Hannah, had 35 NNW winds until noon at least.
My point, is , don’t think the 35 mph plus winds will make it unsurfable. Just bring your heaviest board, and duck your head until you catch that wave, and pounce on the front of your board, and you’ll have a great sesh.
Down south it should be a foot bigger or so.
The swell bar chart model shows that it peaks from midnight to 3 Am Thursday night or early Friday morning, but we still should expect a 6 to 7.5 foot swell (not wave size) by the time the winds turn offshore for us here at the cape. Magicseaweed.com model provided. As you can see, we should have some chest high waves even on Saturday.
The cape ought to be great because of the wind direction, N to NW winds until the size really drops after lunch, and then anywhere will be good, south of Minuteman.
The first picture is stormpulse.com’s 6 Am animation of Irene, and the 2nd picture is the projection of where it should be on Friday at 2 Am. The arrow I placed is where we want the storm to be so the winds are offshore.
As the 3rd picture (swell chart from magicseaweed.com or any other model) might show, is we may have some nice waves in the chest high range on Saturday morning also, with 25 mph plus offshore winds.
We’ll give an update later to see how the cane has slowed or sped up.
Just kidding, this is Dungeons , S. Africa from yesterday, Sunday, Aug. 21,2011 compliments of magicseaweed.com
Hurricane Irene now has a great chance of giving us waves Friday morning in a big way!
I have 3 shots here, the first I’m just kidding…
The 2nd is the chart of Hurricane Irene.
The third is the swell report, which shows a possible of 15 foot or bigger wave face size.
TS Hannah on Sept 5, 2009 was about 100 miles provided us on the big sets, 10 foot overhead waves at the Pier, though I didn’t paddle out until they were in the 6 to 8 foot overhead range.
So Irene could be a little bigger. I will update tonight.
oldwaverider
Hurricane Irene as of Monday at 2 Pm, 8-22-11, stormpulse.com provided
Swell size chart for Thursday thru Saturday, on 8-22-11 Monday, magicseaweed.com and all other model providers
jellyfish found at the end of johnson avenue, may 25,2011. This is image one taken with a phone.
Jellyfish are strung out all along the water, and even up into what appears to be dry sand for the first 5 feet or so. Out in the water, YouTube had videos showing Cannonball Jellyfish (never heard of them but glad to catch the name).
The type at the end of Johnson Avenue in Cape Canaveral and I know up to Lori Wilson Park are a purple looking jellyfish, 1 to 2 1/2 inches in diameter, with purple tentacles, 8 of them according to Wiki, but it was hard to see all of them.
One of our local surfers got nailed at the end of our street. And I know of someone else that got it in back of one of the resorts south of Lori Wilson Park in Cocoa Beach.
Keep your Vinegar or Ammonia bottle sprayer handy in the car. Sudsey Ammonia with half water added did the trick for me once, but the resorts keep Vinegar in a bottle to spray you which works well also.
Some of these Jellyfish, they look like shells, some of them so watch out walking barefoot, and also watch out for the first 5 feet or so of what appears to be dry sand, they're up that far too.
16streets.com had a pretty good write up on the situation with the Jellyfish and what type they are.
For the really curious person, here's a close up 🙂 of the jellyfish.
Johnson Avenue Surfers 