Sunday morning could be solid waist high to maybe chest and almost glassy until maybe 11 AM.
The tide is best at 7 AM, so get out then, it will be 12 to 16 mph N to NNW winds for a couple hours, which means slight offshore from the Cape to 4rth Street North only.
South of Minuteman, N to NNW winds are onshore.
I will share more tonight to see how the swell is coming in.
Monday is looking really fun, early. Rib to chest high down south and glassy !
Keep your eyes out for clean and maybe glassy waist to some chest high waves Friday morning! More later today 🙂
Check out the surf video I posted on my last post, from Hurricane Edouard , from Thursday morning!
What does 4.5 feet at 16 seconds really mean? And the swell peaks around 9-12 Wednesday at 5 feet at 15 seconds. Well…see below my Wednesday, Thursday call to see why it could hit close to double overhead for a few hours late morning in Satellite Beach till maybe, 1 pm Wednesday. Leslie in 2012 a month before Sandy was 4.3 feet at 13 seconds and delivered some 11 foot faces at RC’s.
Wednesday morning, I am calling 2-3 feet overhead at the Pier, with freak sets that are bigger. By noon, I suspect Satellite will have 3 -4 foot overhead big sets, and bigger rogue sets. Winds should be 10 to 15 mph West.
Thursday, shoulder high to 1 foot overhead at the Pier and Satellite, with bigger sets. NW winds until 11ish, then sideshore winds.
Friday, barely leftovers with a new swell coming in for Saturday and Sunday in the thigh to waist high range. Waves for 5 days, yeah!
You have to consider a few things. A swell that comes from Africa, has a chance to develop a great deal of power even when the swell size is smaller than say a Sandy which traveled from the Caribbean. Sandy hit 18-20 feet at 17-19 seconds, but the swell could not travel far and reach the deep ocean depth that a storm from Africa can. Sandy was freak huge due to the power of the hurricane, yeah. And, Sandy did not closeout, hardly at all. Eduard, the fetch of the swell (the width, and height, is much much taller than the U.S. from Florida to Canada. Look at the Period chart. It is so big, and so perfectly uniform like the Nov 10 2011 swell. That swell was 6 feet at 11 seconds, but 5 feet at 15 seconds is a lot of power. We’ll see. I’m rambling kinda 🙂
Anyhow, Eduard could be 3 to 6 feet overhead when it hits the better spots. It will be 1000 miles form our coast, maybe a little less, but it has generated some power. A 15 second period has a wave traveling at you at 45 mph. An 11 second swell, travels at you in the lineup at 33 mph. 50% difference.
Basically the Same outlook as my post on Saturday. Wednesday morning is the big offshore day with West winds most of the day. Size, 5 feet at 15-16 seconds will produce 3 to 5 foot overhead waves.
Thursday , as it stands, is looking over overhead with NW winds early, so get a real early start Thursday.
Hurricane Edouard is expected to hit a Category 2 Hurricane on Tuesday.
Eduard should be in Tuesday night, and for two days running Thursday looks overhead and offshore. And now Wednesday looks to be offshore and way overhead, with a Friday chest to head high glassy day of leftovers. But we will see… 🙂
Will we see Tropical Storm Cristobal Monday morning? Yep!
It hit the 120 mile buoy at 12 Noon today, around 3 feet at 10 seconds, and just hit 4.6 feet at 11 seconds at 6:50 PM reading. At 8 am this morning, the swell that was out there was 2.3 feet at 6 or 7 seconds.
Monday morning, it should be around waist high, because the winds will be onshore, but maybe under 10 mph up until 8 am, then pickup up to 10 to 15 mph my guess by noon. It most likely will be raining with thunder storms around in the morning too. By Monday at 6 PM, it should be solid head high down south, maybe overhead, and chest to shoulder high at the Pier. Tuesday, size should jack up another foot on the fact, with head high onshore chop at the pier with bigger sets, and head high to a foot or two overhead down south.
Wednesday morning should be shoulder to head high with 8 to 12 mph onshore winds, with the winds possibly backing off a little all day. So , if you can get out, wait till 9:30 or 10 (high tide at 9:30), and catch it to mid tide high going low, with the winds slowing down a bit. Swell size starts to drop after 3 or 4 pm, as the models show right now. Wednesday should be a lot of fun.
Thursday, size drops off quite a bit, but still may have some chest high waves with even lighter onshore winds, like 4 to 8 mph, so it should be lots of fun Thursday. Friday should have some fun leftovers for the Surf contest, in the waist high plus range, light onshores, maybe offshore early. Saturday, will most likely be longboard only with offshore winds.
We’ll post more accurate winds Monday night to see what to expect for Wednesday. All these forecasts could change if the storm weakens, picks up speed. (disclaimer done 🙂
Want something to do next weekend? Here ya go, the NKF Labor Day Surf Festival, and here is a screenshot of the website, check out all the events! Follow the link to check it out at their website here:
Sunday afternoon late, we should see some of the swell rolling in with waist high waves. The Groundswell/Windswell model, appears to build from Sunday thru Wednesday, peaking in the 5 to 8 foot range. Thursday, if the storm holds together, could be the big glassy day with overhead waves and offshore winds in the morning. The video below is of Hurricane Bertha in Cocoa Beach, 4rth street, from August 5 2014, shot around 10 AM that Tuesday morning. (it is still processing at YouTube, so by 7 PM or before, it should be ready)
For now, expect Sunday to have something around waist high late afternoon. Monday builds all day with probably some head high faces before dinner time. Onshore winds. Tuesday more of the same, but building.
Wednesday, could be the crazy day, anywhere from Overhead to 3 foot overhead with onshore winds. The fetch (diameter of the storm), is not that large, maybe 500-700 miles, and it cruises from a hug the Bahamas on the East side very close, parallels the coast, and if it holds together, as it passes Brevard by a 100 miles or so, we could have epic overhead waves with brisk offshore winds Thursday morning, or whenever the storm passes by and holds together of course.
Get excited folks, get some exercise, sunscreen and make sure your boards are prepped!
Oldwaverider
Actually, I shall wait until Saturday afternoon. Since the swell appears to be rolling in Sunday afternoon, Monday may be the big day, big chop of course, but it appears that Tuesday, Wednesday, should have some size, with maybe a glassy waist high leftover Thursday 🙂 Updated 10:41 PM Friday night
I will give a full updated report, a little later today, but know, we do have a Ground/Windswell coming!
Oldwaverider
Johnson Avenue Surfers 