This will be my general predictions of incoming swells, size potential and what may be the best days to go out. I may not be able to update everyday, but I’ll do my best. THE SIZE IS BASED ON A RANGE FROM THE PIER TO SATELLITE BEACH. WE HAVE TO KNOCK OFF A FOOT OR TWO FOR JOHNSON AVENUE. My apologies.
A buddy Rob that I surfed with at hangers back in February, his daughter took this pic back around Christmas, which is from Newport Beach, surfing Newport Beach Pier wave
Okay, our incoming swell from the last 2 days I believe is about to deliver the ground swell portion by noon on Thursday. That’s when the moving period chart catches up with around 9 or 10 seconds, which hits the beaches around 11 or 12. Winds should turn SSW by late morning and SW by 12 or 1 Pm in the 15 to 20 mph range. Swell size should be around chest to shoulder high down south by 2nd light, Hightowers, etc., and hopefully waist high here at the Cape. Could be bigger sets, but it depends what we see overnight coming thru the 120 buoy. We did have some waves hit the 120 at 11 seconds but not real consistently, so its hard to say what the power will be. But I’m optimistic it will be a lot of fun, and a little challenging to catch waves.
Friday morning the swell weakens at the 120, but we may still see some waist high sets or bigger down south, with NW winds in the 10 to 12 mph range.
Saturday morning a new long period swell hits as the Friday swell dissipates, so there ought to be something ridable as they pass the baton to each other.
We’ll cover more as the Saturday swell gets closer.
Looks like the winds do turn offshore late Sunday afternoon. SSW by around 1 PM, but turn SW at 10 -12 mph by 3 PM. It should be head high down South (2nd light, RC’s etc.), and waist high to maybe chest at the Cape. Low tide is around 2 PM, but don’t worry about it, just Get it while we have it!!
Monday morning, it looks like NNW till 9 AM, in the 10 mph plus range, so the North wind breaks (North of Minuteman Cswy) will work best for that.
A convenient Brevard County swell, 3-5-10, taken by Gulfster.com photographer.
Our nice fat swell continues with it’s ping pong game. More after this note below about the photo on the left.
The photo to the left is just to set the tone for our Sunday, Monday swell 🙂 It’s a pic taken by Gulfster.com, and it happens to be 3/5/10 when the pic was taken. They come over from Anna Maria Island on the Gulf to Brevard very often when we have a large swell, and they load up with photos of their own people, and some Brevard people. To see some other great Brevard swell photos and to see the other great stuff at their website, check here to see their 2010 batch of photo days.
On this side of the net, it’s back to Monday being the main offshore day, with the swell reading at 4 feet at 9 seconds. With the size fetch of this swell and the large sections of 9 to 10 second swell period in the ocean, I think we’ll see some head high waves down south, and chest high at the Cape. I don’t think the winds overnight will blow it down much in size. At daybreak, I’m guessing the winds will be 10 to 15 mph out of the WNW and will back down to less than 10 by noon. It should be close to epic, if the storm stays on track.
Sunday, now looks like potential offshore in the late afternoon, out of the SSW around 15 to 20 and backing down a little before dark. You need to surf a south wind break, meaning anywhere south of say 6th street south, ideally one of the breaks in Satellite Beach where some areas are close offshore winds even directly out of the south. Sunday should be overhead, so by late afternoon, if it does go offshore, it could be 1 to 2 feet overhead in Satellite and shoulder high to possibly head high at the Cape.
Saturday night I’ll have the most accurate wind directions, when I only have to look at 48 hours. The local weather forecasts for every 15 minutes over 48 hours get it pretty accurate. We’ll keep you updated then.
Had to toss in this killer 2009 video of Ian Walsh and his brother surfing jaws on Christmas Day, 2009. Click on the first link of the names of Ian and Luke. They launch their jet ski in the dark which takes a few minutes to see the actual surfing.
A shameless recycle of a 2009 Perkins pic, taken by a friend.
Looks like we have a 5 to 7 day swell coming in, the same puppy I mentioned Saturday. It actually has a 3 punch makeup to it. I also believe we will see the lines of a just barely ground swell at least by Monday, if not some time over Saturday and Sunday. It won’t be just a wind swell, I’ll stick my neck out here on this 🙂
First punch hits the beaches Wednesday morning with the full power of that part (when the period of the swell catches up with the waves, usually a day behind the waves), hitting Thursday afternoon, with yes onshore only winds. Wednesday morn the winds ought to be in the 10 to 15 mph ENE range, and picking up slowly thru the day, probably not to the 20 mph range. By lunch time Wednesday we should have some head high waves down south, and waist to chest here at the cape. The best paddle out time Wednesday is around 8 am with high going low, meaning, the most gentle chop conditions, otherwise just before dark.
Thursday morn, the winds start out at probably at 15 mph plus, ENE, and increase throughout the day as it delivers the full force of the swell period. (the swell is coming from the east, with some southeast on it) I believe Thursday late morning we should see some overhead waves like 1 to 2 foot overhead down south and head high at the cape. Paddle out time Thursday for the most mild chop will be around 9:30 to 10:30 am or just before dark.
2nd punch , Friday the heavy 15 to 25 mph onshore winds stay on it, with some 2 to 3 foot overhead waves down south, maybe bigger. 2 hours after high tide is the most gentle paddle out time.
Right now, it looks like 3rd punch Monday morning as chosen to be the offshore winds day instead of Sunday as the swell wraps around to the gulf, and maybe even some leftover offshores for Tuesday. Monday looks like it could be chest to shoulder high (down south, and waist plus at the cape) with strong offshore winds in the morning mostly west (over 10 mph maybe 15), but they should be slowing down as the day progresses.
Tuesday morning looks like it could also be offshore out of the NW in the chest high range south and waist at the cape, eventually turning North, but that’s pretty far out, as is calling Monday, but it is a big storm(swell), so unless it speeds up or slows down, we should see our glassy waves on a couple days for two 4 or 5 hours sessions from either late Sunday, on Monday or sometime Tuesday. God’s been good to us the last 20 months on waves eh?
We’ll keep ya posted as conditions change, or remain the same 🙂
7 Day surf chart shows Wednesday incoming swell, compliments, magicseaweed.com
Wednesday morning, the 2nd of March, we have a decent size wind swell blowing in the 3 to 4 foot range. But Thursday afternoon, a secondary swell or a secondary part of the original swell, really hammers in, and then keeps rolling in thru Saturday or Sunday in the 6 to 8 foot range at around 8 seconds, maybe even 9 seconds.
Thursday night, the swell chart starts to catch up with the wave chart meaning, some strength starts to show, but the real punch of the wind swell is by Saturday morning-afternoon.
This swell looks so close to being a ground swell, that we’ll just have to see if any serious lines show up late Friday or Saturday morning.
It’s too early to tell if and when we’ll have some offshore winds, but right now the guess is for Sunday.
Okay, backing up a few days, here are some comments about the small swell we had Thursday and Friday.
Hind-site, I guess we should have said something about the Thursday-Friday swell that was upon us.
Thursday I surfed some fun thigh to waist high waves at Hangers, not glassy but very clean. Many 50 to 100 yard rides were to be had on long boards. Almost all lefts, pretty fun.
I was surfing with Rob, a guy visiting from Newport Beach, and we just alternated waves with plenty of spectators on the beach. Yeah we kooked ocassionally, when you’re over 45 you are allowed to kook. But great session. Enjoy the trip back to Newport Beach Rob.
Newport was a great place to surf back when Cliff (an old high school buddy) and I drove out to California in 1979, ouch!
Friday, the rock breaks weren’t really happening at 10 Am yet, so I checked on O’Club, and it was going off. Five people out on the North end, so me and Eric, a clammer tradesmen I met before heading out, we went to the south end, and caught a whole bunch of awesome lefts. Most of the lefts, you caught out side and rode a totally workable wall all the way to the beach without hardly any closeouts. 70 to 100 yards plus !
The sets were a lot of chest high glassy with 15 – 20 mph SSW winds on it, so some serious texture was to be had, but man, the lefts were going off totally. It was a normal footers chance to work a bunch of lefts, and that’s all we did. Incredible session. The current was semi-strong so we had to paddle a bit, and do a walk back south from time to time, but the paddle out was easy.
We’ll keep you updated on the incoming wind swell which looks to have some good size to it.
Two converging swells Saturday 9 Am, 3.6 feet at 10 seconds, the top one actually arrives late Sunday. Magicseaweed.com
Well my apologies for over estimating swell size for Friday. We did get the overhead waves down South on Thursday, but not today.
My guess Saturday morning, is fun waist-high waves early morning with 4 to 6 mph NW winds until 10 Am down south. At the Cape, I suspect barely rideable.
Today, at Hightowers was waist to stomach and semi-glassy, but since it was high tide when I had to go out, it was fairly weak in power (8 to 9 am). Long board only for sure. The short boarders just didn’t look like it was to fun for them.
I was pushing to get out early this morn, to catch the offshore winds, but it didn’t matter, hindsight I would have waited till mid-tide (right at 10:30) to paddle out down south.
At Johnson Ave., Dr. John got a couple of nice rides, a really nice left while I was watching, but our size here was knee-high with maybe an ocassional thigh high.
Saturday, we do have a converging Nor’easter coming to meet the easterly swell that may make a push on the swell we’ve had the last 2 days, and it looks like two 3.7 foot 10 second swells hitting the nearshore buoy. So maybe it will be chest high down South, but as weak as this easterly swell is, I’m not to optimistic. The new swell comes in late Sunday and full strength Sunday night , early Monday Am. Monday morning looks like chest high potential with off shore winds probable out of the SW.
Enjoy what we do have, cause it’s sure better than flatness 🙂
Skipping down the face. From the harbour Saint Jean de Luz, the Naturgas team motored out to Belharra surf break, at the bottom SW point of France, near the Spain Basque region. Compliments of magicseaweed.com
Quick update for Friday morning. Those of you willing to do dawn patrol, I believe we will have offshore winds, SW winds light, until 9:30 Am the very latest. Probably, only till 8:30 Am.
Size should be waist to chest at the Cape, and head high down south. There is a chance of a few over head waves down South. Probably more overhead sets than on Saturday.
Saturday, looks like NW winds till mid-morning at best, but also chest to head high, with possibly a few overhead waves.
oldwaverider
More from the new XXL entrant, Belharra break in SW France.
Our incoming swell should bring us some waist to possible chest high waves at the Cape today, with chest to overhead sets coming in down South, at Patrick and Satellite Beach. It does look like the swell may not hit the size as the models showed 2 days ago.
I looked at the pier this morning, at dead high tide and it was waist high, with about 5 short-boarders out and 1 long-boarder. Not a strong swell but hopefully as the swell rolls in thru noon, it may strengthen. It looked fun though.
The winds will be ramping up today from 10 to 15 mph out of the ESE, but……..Friday morning at daybreak it looks like they will drop to 2 to 4 mph SE so there should be some really fun lines coming in, waist high plus at the Cape and chest high plus down South.
Saturday morning still looks like we will have offshore winds, it looks like 5 to 8 mph NW winds at daybreak, and waist here, and chest high down South. The water should jump up to 65 by Saturday, so toss the suits, and skin it while soaking in the sun at 78 degrees !
France Basque country gets huge XXL swell. See the great photos at magicseaweed.com
This video is from a swell that just hit France, a cove/bay called Saint Jean Luis, as you can see it’s at the far SW tip of France as it hits Spain. See the awesome still shots here.
This has got to be the best close up video footage I have seen of big wave surfing. The backs of these waves look like 20 foot, and the fronts look to be 20 to 30 foot plus overhead. A couple of the guys, just left that huge swell at Ireland, which was also a Billabong XXL big wave entrant. The footage is only a minute, but the waves looks so clean, perfect and makeable (and huge), that they almost look ridable for the average Joe.
Enjoy the swell we have, the warm sun and the kind of waves that Europe is getting right now. Later
Recycled photo 🙂 taken by a friend at Perkins, 2009
Our swell took perhaps a 10 hour delay or so to hit the 120 buoy, but it appears to be coming in there now. At 3 Am today it hit 6 feet at 9 seconds, and just jumped to 7.5 feet at 9 seconds at 9 Am this morning.
Anyhow, it looks like the bulk of the wave size at the beach should be Thursday morning, sometime between mid-morning at early afternoon, with winds (according to weather channel for Cocoa Beach) showing to be in the 3 to 6 mph range going from the SE at daybreak to SSE into mid-morning. (It seems to me that we would really need some stronger onshore winds Thursday morning to bring this swell in , like 10 to 20 mph, but I’m gonna leave weather channels prediction until I see how it looks tonight)
If that holds true, Thursday could be some fun overhead lines coming in down south with decent clean form, and waist to shoulder-high waves here at the Cape. Then the winds pick up gradually thru the day Thursday, 10 to 15 mph turning ESE, and then slowing down to 5 to 10 mph at daybreak Friday morning out of the SE. Again, it could be decent clean form Friday morning.
Our chance for perfect offshore winds Saturday morning has dimmed some, GET OUT THERE BEFORE 8 AM! TO GET THE BEST CONDITIONS because the moving swell chart models show NNW winds in the 1 to 3 mph range, however I think the way land warms quicker than sea which creates kind of a mini-high pressure may throw NW winds for a couple of hours without any charts telling us so, but I would say get out early Saturday morning to take advantage of the slight offshore winds, because by late morning it should be direct onshore winds in the 5 to 10 range.
Sorry this report got really anal, but it’s a lot of non-uniform data for this swell.
By the way, I recycled the pic of me at Perkins cause I’ve run out of surf pics, and until some Johnson Avenue area surfers shoot me some jpegs, I’ll have to use my own , and or some big wave pics going on worldwide.
Be sure to check out the new slide show of a new XXL entrant for Mullaghmore Head in Ireland. (kind of in the LaHinch Beach area). Richie Fitzgerald (from the British Isles) got drilled really bad and tore some ligaments in his leg from a massive closeout, and got held down twice and almost passed out. One tough individual. It is being called the Teahupoo of the North Atlantic, with 20 foot barrels inside. See the slide show from magicseaweed.com here.
Predicted Swell chart for Wed. 2/16 PM EST, compliments of Magicseaweed.com
We have an easterly kinda nor-easterly swell that should be hitting us sometime Tuesday evening, and full size Wednesday probably in the afternoon, hoorah!
However, (always a negative to go with it in surf reports), the swell appears to be a strong ground swell but big chop, until my guess Saturday and possibly Sunday morning. The winds may only be 10 to 15 mph by Wednesday after noon, slowing down from 15 to 20 in the morning.
The swell is coming mostly from the east and should be dropping overhead chop by Wednesday morning, we will probably see some head high waves in the Cape, with overhead waves in Satellite Beach and 2nd light. By mid-afternoon, the winds should be down to 10 to 15 mph, and the easiest paddle out time with cleanest conditions Wednesday would be around 3 PM. (it’s low going high at that time, although high going low is always better, but at least the paddle out into the chop will be the most smooth at 3 PM. high going low it will be dark out so that’s a no brainer 🙂
Conditions change as the storm speeds up, slows down and other factors of course. (the classic C.Y.A. statement 🙂
Saturday could be chest high plus and glassy down south. And on Friday, Playalinda could have some offshore winds there since direct South winds in Playalinda are 32 degrees off shore, and Friday it looks like the winds turn southerly in the mid-day around 6 to 10 mph.
Be ready for some glass anytime between Friday and Monday, from waist-high to head high depending on how well the swell does. We’ll provide updates as it moves closer to our epic surf shores.
Johnson Avenue Surfers 