Category: Brevard Surf Predictions Cape Canaveral, Cocoa Beach and Satellite Beach

This will be my general predictions of incoming swells, size potential and what may be the best days to go out. I may not be able to update everyday, but I’ll do my best. THE SIZE IS BASED ON A RANGE FROM THE PIER TO SATELLITE BEACH. WE HAVE TO KNOCK OFF A FOOT OR TWO FOR JOHNSON AVENUE. My apologies.

Hurricane Irene Surf Report Tuesday morning (at 8:00 Am) and Surf Forecast for Cape Canaveral n Cocoa Beach (posted August 23, 2011)

by oldwaverider, posted in Alerts for Johnson Avenue beaches, Brevard Huge Swell and Hurricane Photos, Brevard Surf Predictions Cape Canaveral, Cocoa Beach and Satellite Beach

Hurricane Irene position as of 6 Am Tuesday morning, compliments of stormpulse.com, 100 mph winds, and on its way to a category 4 hurricane.
Hurricane Irene position as of 6 Am Tuesday morning, compliments of stormpulse.com, 100 mph winds, and on its way to a category 4 hurricane.

Update; 6:30 PM Tuesday night, from the 8:00 Am report this morning.

Now the storm has slowed enough to give us back the 8.5 feet at 12 seconds at daybreak.  What’s that mean? Friday morning it ought to give us double overhead waves at the pier and at least in Satellite Beach. Plus, the wind models are showing NW at daybreak instead of N or NNW, and the winds have slowed down to the NW in the 30 mph range with some stronger gusts, but at least they’re not in the 40’s.  Even at 9 Am we could still see some 5 to 6 foot overhead sets.

Saturday morning, looks like shoulder to head high with strong but reasonable offshore winds around 20 mph out of the west.

If this model could hold, we would have our huge epic day, and a head high epic day on Saturday.

Also, Irene model projections have shifted slightly. As of 5 PM tonight, instead of a direct path toward Wilmington, NC, it appears to be heading for a brush with Cape Hatteras and then toward New York.  The storm Friday morning looks like it will be about 230 miles east of us.  BUT,  YA NEVER KNOW WHAT CAN CHANGE SO KEEP SOME EXTRA BATTERIES, CAN FOOD, CAT OR DOG FOOD AND SOME CANDLES AND A BATTERY FAN AROUND 🙂

Below, is the forecast I gave at 8 AM this morning.

Irene is a Cat 2, 100 mph winds as of early this morning.  Pray for the folks at Wilmington, N.C.

Surf; The storm model has moved up its time frame, so the main power and size of the surf will be while we sleep Thursday nite.  But for those that felt it would be too big, now it will be perfect for you.

Friday morning, the winds (this is a weak model on winds, but Wednesday night I will have 62.6 to 80% accurate winds for Friday morning once I can use weather.com models)  anyhow as it stands the winds turn NNW by 8 Am ish, are still holding in the 35 to 45 mph range, so there’s no reason for dawn patrol except to beat the crowds 🙂

The models show that at 2 Am Friday morning, where Irene should be, and the arrow I placed is to show where we want the Hurricane to be after the Friday 2 Am model, so that it provides offshore winds. Compliments of stormpulse.com
The models show that at 2 Am Friday morning, where Irene should be, and the arrow I placed is to show where we want the Hurricane to be after the Friday 2 Am model, so that it provides offshore winds. Compliments of stormpulse.com

Size,  now I’m calling 4 to 5 foot overhead at daybreak, and by NW wind time, after 9 Am anyhow,  I believe at the pier it will still be 3 to 4 foot overhead on the sets.

Remember, TS Hannah,  which at daybreak until 10 am had some 10 foot overhead sets, it was about 60 miles or 100 miles offshore.  (I sat in Marlins and had breakfast so I could see people dropping in and how many bodies could be stacked on their shoulders to establish wave face size.  And it was almost 2 bodies, almost triple overhead on the big sets, but not quite.)  But Hannah, had 35 NNW winds until noon at least.

My point, is , don’t think the 35 mph plus winds will make it unsurfable.  Just bring your heaviest board, and duck your head until you catch that wave, and pounce on the front of your board, and you’ll have a great sesh.

Down south it should be a foot bigger or so.

The swell bar chart model shows that it peaks from midnight to 3 Am Thursday night or early Friday morning, but we still should expect a 6 to 7.5 foot swell (not wave size) by the time the winds turn offshore for us here at the cape. Magicseaweed.com model provided. As you can see, we should have some chest high waves even on Saturday.
The swell bar chart model shows that it peaks from midnight to 3 Am Thursday night or early Friday morning, but we still should expect a 6 to 7.5 foot swell (not wave size) by the time the winds turn offshore for us here at the cape. Magicseaweed.com model provided. As you can see, we should have some chest high waves even on Saturday.

The cape ought to be great because of the wind direction, N to NW winds until the size really drops after lunch, and then anywhere will be good, south of Minuteman.

The first picture is stormpulse.com’s 6 Am animation of Irene, and the 2nd picture is the projection of where it should be on Friday at 2 Am.  The arrow I placed is where we want the storm to be so the winds are offshore.

As the 3rd picture (swell chart from magicseaweed.com or any other model) might show, is we may have some nice waves in the chest high range on Saturday morning also, with 25 mph plus offshore winds.

We’ll give an update later to see how the cane has slowed or sped up.

oldwaverider

Hurricane Irene Surf Report Monday morning (at 8:30 Am) and Surf Forecast for Cape Canaveral n Cocoa Beach (posted August 22, 2011)

by oldwaverider, posted in Alerts for Johnson Avenue beaches, Brevard Huge Swell and Hurricane Photos, Brevard Surf Predictions Cape Canaveral, Cocoa Beach and Satellite Beach

Just kidding, this is Dungeons , S. Africa from yesterday, Sunday, Aug. 21,2011 compliments of magicseaweed.com
Just kidding, this is Dungeons , S. Africa from yesterday, Sunday, Aug. 21,2011 compliments of magicseaweed.com

 

Hurricane Irene now has a great chance of giving us waves Friday morning in a big way!

I have 3 shots here, the first I’m just kidding…

The 2nd is the chart of Hurricane Irene.

The third is the swell report, which shows a possible of 15 foot or bigger wave face size.

TS Hannah on Sept 5, 2009 was about 100 miles provided us on the big sets, 10 foot overhead waves at the Pier, though I didn’t paddle out until they were in the 6 to 8 foot overhead range.

So Irene could be a little bigger. I will update tonight.

oldwaverider

 

 

Hurricane Irene as of Monday at 2 Pm, 8-22-11, stormpulse.com provided
Hurricane Irene as of Monday at 2 Pm, 8-22-11, stormpulse.com provided

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Swell size chart for Thursday thru Saturday, on 8-22-11 Monday, magicseaweed.com and all other model providers
Swell size chart for Thursday thru Saturday, on 8-22-11 Monday, magicseaweed.com and all other model providers

Surf Report Thursday Noon (at 12:15 Pm) and Surf Forecast for Cape Canaveral n Cocoa Beach (posted August 18, 2011)

by oldwaverider, posted in Brevard Surf Predictions Cape Canaveral, Cocoa Beach and Satellite Beach, Brevard Surfing Photos - general swells

Phone cam shots ;( Knee to thigh on the South side of the pier around 11 Am Thursday morning.
Phone cam shots ;( Knee to thigh on the South side of the pier around 11 Am Thursday morning.

Thursday night update from noon forecast (8:45 Pm).  The winds are now looking like SSW at daybreak and SW at 9 Am and N at 10 Am, then going onshore.  Get out early.  The 120 buoy has hit 4 feet at 8 and 9 seconds, if it hits 4.5 to 5 feet and holds at a few hits at 9 seconds, I still believe we will see some chest high sets.  Otherwise, maybe just waist, but I’m still optimistic.  The models just now changed and are showing Friday morning to be smaller, 1.5 feet at 8 seconds as opposed to 2.5 feet at 8 seconds as it was showing the last couple days for Friday morning.  So if the 120 goes up from what I said above, then we’ll be good, otherwise, knee to thigh.  Ouch.  Ending 8:45 Pm Thursday nite update.

Below is the original report from noon today.

My apologies, I didn’t update Tuesday night, and I will try not to make promises I can’t keep.  Ouch!

Okay, on to more ‘impotant’ things.   We have a little swell among us.  I checked it out from Hightowers,  Hangers, O’Club, also the High Tide break in South Cocoa Beach,  The Pier and Johnson Ave.  It looked ridable everywhere if you had patience to wait for the sets, but the pier did look most consistent when I checked it at 11ish.

I took a few pics at the pier with my phone,  yeah, very weak quality, but at least you can see the size on the Southside.

I definitely saw some waist high waves out there among the set waves down south.  (waist high for a 6 footer, since a guy I talked to at O’Club told me he had a head high drop on one wave,  he emphasized head-high for him:)

It looks like we have a middle of the road between a wind swell and a ground swell,  a low period swell,  with peaks for take off, as opposed to long lines.  I believe Friday morning  some time we will have some chest high sets rolling in down south, at least on the bigger sets.   The winds ought to be 3 to 5 mph SW offshore at daybreak Friday, and swinging around to the NNW by 10 or 11 Am, to NNE by lunch.

Phone cam shot two, South side of pier.
Phone cam shot two, South side of pier.

So, Friday waist to chest high with offshore winds (3 to 6 mph SW to NW by 10ish),  low tide is around 5:45 Am at the Cape,  so anytime after 7 Am will probably be good.

Saturday is looking a little bigger, but onshore in the Am.  Weather.com is telling me NNE around 5 to 7 mph,  Magicseaweed.coms models are showing S to SE for Saturday morning, but I don’t think their model is updated yet.  Friday night we’ll give ya an update on the winds, and I may tonight if it looks like it will change from what I have now.

Sunday, the size drops a little, but as it stands, we may have continued waves for a few days.

Also,  we may get a strong swell from the Tropical Disturbance down below Cuba which the models are showing some chest high to head high waves coming, so we’ll keep ya posted on that.

Have a fun surf sesh today,  Friday morn, or whenever 🙂

Phone cam shot no. 3 Southside of pier, 11 Am ish.
Phone cam shot no. 3 Southside of pier, 11 Am ish.

oldwaverider

Surf Report Tuesday morning (at 8:15 Am) and Surf Forecast for Cape Canaveral n Cocoa Beach (posted August 16, 2011)

by oldwaverider, posted in Brevard Surf Predictions Cape Canaveral, Cocoa Beach and Satellite Beach

We may have some waves coming, perhaps from Gert, of which I will update tonight.

But as it stands, we may have something ridable Thursday morning, but a little more size Friday morn, waist high, and Saturday , Sunday may even be bigger.

We will give you some wind and size details tonight, but I just wanted to mention what’s coming.

The period of the swell seems to have some decent form to it meaning the fetch has a well defined area, so I feel as though we may have some fun, ridable waves.

Later,

oldwaverider

How the Waves were the last day of Tropical Storm Emily, on Sunday (see photo below), 3 Tropical Disturbances on the way, plus Surf Report Thursday afternoon (at 4:00 Pm) and Surf Forecast for Cape Canaveral n Cocoa Beach (posted August 11, 2011)

by oldwaverider, posted in A summary of How the Waves were, Big Wave Video & Photo Locations, Brevard Surf Predictions Cape Canaveral, Cocoa Beach and Satellite Beach, Brevard Surfing Photos - general swells, Miscellaneous Videos, galleries, etc., Peru - Pico Alto

Sunday mid-morning photo in Satellite Beach, August 7 2011. Taken by a friend, Mike Melito
Sunday mid-morning photo in Satellite Beach, August 7 2011. Taken by a friend, Mike Melito

The last day of Emily was Sunday (4 great days, nothing huge but a few head high sets on the drop), and it was a great day in Satellite at RC’s and Hightowers !  I surfed the morning which was stomach high and perfect glass, but it kicked up to chest high as the tide brought in more water.

If you surfed Emily in Cocoa Beach or the Cape, you probably missed the best size because of the angle of the swell.  Also, when the winds were mostly SSW, the only place to surf that is South of Minuteman Causeway, and for the size south of the Streets from 2nd light or maybe O Club and South.  Great surf, 4 days of it!

This is the official Chasing Monsters trailer video.  The link to the 2010 Pico Alto contest is below at the Chasing Monsters website.  As shown today on Magicseaweed.com the Pico Alto in Peru is on.  Quote “the world’s top big wave crazies will compete at the Billabong Pico Alto 2011– Copa Burn”.  If you want to see last year’s video on the Pico Alto 2010, check out the video at the ChasingMonsters.com website, and as of today it is the 4rth video to scroll down to.

Chasing Monsters Teaser from IronFistMedia on Vimeo.

Waves coming, maybe ! Upcoming low pressure system swell headed our way!  The models show that it hits Wednesday and keeps rolling for 3 plus days.  Don’t know when we will half offshore winds, nor am I 100% sure the swell will hit, but the models show a nice SE swell in the 3 to 4 foot range with a high period of 11 or 12 seconds, so it’s definitely ground swell.

Friday morning, August 12 2011, 3 Tropical Disturbances being tracked from Africa, headed our way, 2 of which have a 40% chance of becoming a Hurricane within 48 hours, compliments of Stormpulse.com
Friday morning, August 12 2011, 3 Tropical Disturbances being tracked from Africa, headed our way, 2 of which have a 40% chance of becoming a Hurricane within 48 hours, compliments of Stormpulse.com

FRIDAY MORNING UPDATE OF YESTERDAYS POST ON TROPICAL DISTURBANCES! We have 2 each 40% Trop. Disturbances and one 20% that have a chance of becoming a Cyclone (Hurricane, yeah I know you know 🙂 , all three came from our normal storm birthing ground, that of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa.  The image is compliments of Stormpulse.com my favorite hurricane tracker site.

We’ll keep ya posted.

NOTE:  JOHNSON AVENUE SURFERS will be moving to a new server in the next month and the URL will be johnsonavenuesurfers.com instead of j-avenue-surfers.com  (we were gonna keep it low key, but we wanna give it more exposure and reach)

oldwaverider

How the Waves were Thurs, Friday, Saturday, Tropical Storm Emily remnants update, How Friday Fest was, plus Surf Report Saturday night (at 9:00 Pm) and Surf Forecast for Cape Canaveral n Cocoa Beach (posted August 06, 2011)

by oldwaverider, posted in A summary of How the Waves were, Brevard Surf Predictions Cape Canaveral, Cocoa Beach and Satellite Beach, Local Events in Canaveral or Cocoa Beach

Sunday morning, stomach to chest high and glassy down south with some bigger sets especially in Satellite, thigh to waist at the Cape.  Winds should be 3 to 6 mph out of the SW and then West.   Winds increasing thru the day to 10 to 15 mph with the swell dropping rapidly, especially by mid-afternoon.  Get out before 7:30 while the winds are light and before the swell really starts to drop by 11 or 12.

How the Waves were on Thursday,  chest high plus and glassy down south by Patrick and Satellite.

Stomach to almost chest high Friday and very glassy in Satellite but a little textured and a little chop North of Minuteman once the SSW winds started around 8.  Really fun waves in Satellite, nice fast walls.

Saturday, light onshores, and solid waist to stomach high at Lori Wilson, once high tide hit at 1:30 it was really clean and fun long rides on long board and fun, short workable walls on short board.

Oh, Friday Fest in Cape Canaveral was awesome and so was the band Vilify.   They had to be under 22 years all 3 of them and man, the Bass, Drummer and especially lead guitar were all awesome.  They played metal,  Pink Floyd, The Doors and their own original.  And the food and booths of artists, etc were great.

Have a great final session from Emily !

oldwaverider

How the Waves were today, Tropical Storm Emily update, Friday Fest for the Cape, plus Surf Report Thursday afternoon (at 1:30 Pm) and Surf Forecast for Cape Canaveral n Cocoa Beach (posted August 04, 2011)

by oldwaverider, posted in A summary of How the Waves were, Brevard Surf Predictions Cape Canaveral, Cocoa Beach and Satellite Beach, Local Events in Canaveral or Cocoa Beach

Friday morning 7 AM swell size model from magicseaweed.com and Noah.
Friday morning 7 AM swell size model from magicseaweed.com and Noah.

Before I mention what today was like, an 8:00 PM update for Friday mornings call I have down below from earlier today. The 120 buoy is hanging around 4 foot at 11 seconds which is good, and the moving swell model is showing that it ought to hit 5 to 6 foot at the 120 tonight, but the winds are blowing SSW out there , at least down from 11 to now 5 knots SSW, but that could keep a lot of the swell back.  So it could drop even smaller on Friday than it was today but I still feel better than 50 % that we’ll have chest high waves down south Friday morning 🙂

The pier had solid waist high waves today, I surfed on Johnson which was knee-high maybe some bigger sets, mostly closeouts but it was worth getting wet.  With the winds being SW at the Cape, that actually is sideshore to occasionally slight offshore  winds for us, and definite offshore down south, so that’s why we had some bumpy texture here. When I went to the pier at 11 Am,  the winds had just turned onshore, it was waist-high and glassy so probably a foot bigger down south though I haven’t heard back yet on that.

Friday still looks to be a foot bigger or should I say stomach to chest high down south with a wind change to SSW winds instead of the earlier models that said SW.  The SSW winds look to only hold until 9 AM at best so get out early!  The actual swell from Emily is still rolling in straight thru until Saturday morning. Take a look at the first image which shows the Friday incoming swell model with the arrow pointing to a lighter blue than the 2nd picture which was for this morning, so the swell should be a little bigger and stronger for Friday morning but only for early morning.

Thursday morning 7 AM swell size model from magicseaweed.com and Noah.
Thursday morning 7 AM swell size model from magicseaweed.com and Noah.

Saturday the swell size peaks at around 3.5 feet at 9 seconds at around daybreak still looks to be chest high plus down south with onshore winds all day maybe some shoulder high sets, with light onshores in the morning (2 to 4 mph SSE, and increasing onshores in the afternoon, right now I can only read until 1 Pm which shows 6 mph east.

Sunday I believe will have chest high plus waves down south with I suspect NW winds, but that I will confirm Friday sometime early evening.   Sunday still looks to be the semi-epic day.   Only a North wind break for Sunday, meaning only a surf break North of Minuteman Causeway.  (From the Cape to Satellite we have a bay in the shape of a C with Minuteman being the bottom, so if you look at my Google Map chart, you will see why I say South Wind and North Wind breaks.)  Follow this link and scroll down just below the 4 small surf pictures and you will see the Names of 5 to 10 breaks and whether they are in the North or South wind break area.

Anyhow, have fun Friday thru Sunday.

Oh, don’t forget about the Cape Canaveral Friday Fest, to support children in school plus our local vendors, artists and beer, wine providers 🙂

oldwaverider

Tropical Storm Emily update plus Surf Report Wednesday night (at 9:30 Pm) and Surf Forecast for Cape Canaveral n Cocoa Beach (posted August 03, 2011)

by oldwaverider, posted in Brevard Surf Predictions Cape Canaveral, Cocoa Beach and Satellite Beach

Tropical Storm Emily has stalled as of 8 PM tonight (Wed) but still should throw some waves. Image compliments of stormpulse.com
Tropical Storm Emily has stalled as of 8 PM tonight (Wed) but still should throw some waves. Image compliments of stormpulse.com

The mental roller coaster continues…………….Ya know, the independence of a Tropical Storm/Hurricane , it just kinda changes its mind when it wants,

Tropical Storm Emily has stalled as of 8 PM tonight, but it does still have 50 mph winds.  It’s border is skimming Haiti and the Dominican Republic.   So right now the models dropped from 6 to 7 feet at around 11 seconds to 3.5 at 9 seconds.  This I feel will jump back up again, a little, but if not, it’s still showing for Sunday, chest to shoulder-high wave potential by Patrick/Satellite and waist to chest here at the Cape with NW winds brisk but not too strong.

Thursday morning call; still iffy.  We may have a rideable swell and we might not, but as of 9:30 PM it hasn’t hit the 120 buoy, not above 2.6 at 9 secs, and we really want 3.5 to 4.0 feet min at the 120 to even hope for waist-high waves tomorrow.  It still looks like a 20 % chance of having waist-high plus before 10 Am, the winds should be offshore SW in the 5 to 8 mph range till mid-morning.  (What’s with this percent thing 😉

Friday I have more confidence of having some fun waist to chest high waves down south and waist here in the Cape.  Friday morning looks like SW winds again in the 4 to 8 range.

Saturday still looks like a stall and with light on shores in the Am and increasing on shores throughout the day up to 15 ish.  Size by evening, chest high plus.

Sunday, if the models hold as they are, we may see nothing.  But, if the storm moves again, then chest high plus with NW winds which means, your best shot is a break North of Minuteman Causeway to look for a North wind break.

Hopefully the model picks up, but whatever, we should have at least a couple days of fun waves 🙂

We’ll talk Thursday some time.

oldwaverider

Tropical Storm Emily update plus Surf Report Wednesday morning (at 8:45 Am) and Surf Forecast for Cape Canaveral n Cocoa Beach (posted August 03, 2011)

by oldwaverider, posted in Brevard Huge Swell and Hurricane Photos, Brevard Surf Predictions Cape Canaveral, Cocoa Beach and Satellite Beach

Emily looks to be best positioned for offshore winds and overhead for Sunday. Compliments of Stormpulse.com
Emily looks to be best positioned for offshore winds and overhead for Sunday. Compliments of Stormpulse.com

Okay, Emily in brief.

Thursday morning, possible late morning ground swell, but that may be iffy.  It is not really from Emily, but it could be waist to chest, ssw offshore winds.

Friday morning, this is part of Emily, and should be chest high (down south of course), ssw to sw winds.  Emily stalls out here and size does not build until afternoon Saturday.

Saturday morning Emily is building , it may be waist to chest with light onshore winds early and sloppy strong onshore winds in the afternoon, and by late afternoon and evening it will get big probably overhead a little down south but be choppy all day, cause when a hurricane or TS is straight off our coast the winds have not come around offshore yet.  (SEE PICTURE TO SEE STORM LOCATION)

Sunday morning, should be offshore, overhead, probably west winds offshore brisk in the 8 to 15 mph winds, but my guess, 2 foot overhead down south and head high plus at the Cape.

The winds I can’t accurately predict until 36 hours ahead of the predicted time period I’m talking about.  So tonight I will give you some more accurate winds for Friday and Thursday and also if the first ground swell does actually hit the 120 buoy, or if we can only expect real waves for Sunday (offshore) and Saturday late afternoon big and onshore.

oldwaverider

Tropical Disturbance update plus Surf Report Sunday night (at 7:30 Pm) and Surf Forecast for Cape Canaveral n Cocoa Beach (posted August 01, 2011)

by oldwaverider, posted in Brevard Surf Predictions Cape Canaveral, Cocoa Beach and Satellite Beach

Tropical disturbance now with 35 mph winds, compliments of Stormpulse.com
Tropical disturbance now with 35 mph winds, compliments of Stormpulse.com

1624 miles from Daytona it is.   It’s still only a disturbance but at least it is traveling WNW at 21 mph and has winds of 35 mph.

The first image showing the low pressure system is an improvement of strength over last night.

In the 2nd image, check out the winds on Sunday, its pretty funny, up to 40 plus mph.  We’ll see what happens, most of our great Canes have to come from the tip of Africa to really develop, but maybe we’ll have some fun with this one.

At least we may get a wind swell with some nice size 🙂

Something ridable from Thursday on perhaps. Swell and wind chart from magicseaweed.com
Something ridable from Thursday on perhaps. Swell and wind chart from magicseaweed.com